Handicapping the wide-open National League wild card race is as difficult as trying to sneak a fastball by Barry Bonds. Good luck. With eight teams within three games of each other, you might as well get out your darts if you are trying to predict who will make it to the post-season.
On the other hand, the American League wild card race is much easier to get a handle on. Three teams are vying for two spots to keep playing in October. Oakland, Seattle and Boston are all separated by a handful of games, with Oakland leading Seattle in the West and Seattle in front of Boston for the wild card.
The Athletics always seem to catch fire in August and September and this year looks to be no exception. Oakland entered yesterday with an eight-game winning streak and two game lead in the West. Despite the regular season-ending hip injury to Mark Mulder, the A's still have three solid starters and their bats are starting to liven up, especially that of reigning MVP Miguel Tejada.
Assuming Oakland holds on to take the West, that leaves Seattle and Boston fighting for the final playoff invitation. If recent history means anything, it would seem to favor the Bo Sox. Boston completed a four-game sweep of the Mariners last weekend and it looked like the age of some of Seattle's key players might be catching up with them. But, fortunately for the M's, when it comes to the Red Sox, the only history that matters is the past 85 years of post-season futility.
For all the superstitions and curses in the sports world -- such as the Sports Illustrated cover jinx, the new Madden's video game box cover and our own Jessica Garrison's blight on Matt Schaub's shoulder -- the most potent and powerful has always been (and always will be) the Curse of the Bambino.
When Red Sox owner and Broadway producer Harry Frazee sold away Babe Ruth to the hated rival New York Yankees for enough cash to open the play "No, No, Nannette" in 1920, he simultaneously sold away the franchise's chance at another World Series ring. Just as any learned military historian knows it is hopeless to invade Russia during the winter, any baseball historian knows it is foolish to put your eggs in the Red Sox's playoff basket.
Despite a favorable remaining schedule that includes a majority of their games against the Devil Rays and Orioles, this year's Red Sox are battling more than just the Mariners --- they are trying to reverse nine decades of history. A few years might be a coincidence. A few decades might be a bad streak. But when do coincidence and streaks simply become the way it is? I'm thinking 85 years might be that point.
Although their best hitter may have the heart of the Tin Man (see Manny Ramirez missing all three games against the Yankees with a "sore throat") and their best pitcher may have the physical strength of the Scarecrow (see Pedro Martinez's ailing shoulder), it will not be injuries or lack of pitching that keeps the Red Sox from playing in October. No, it will be Frazee's decision made four score and five years ago that will do this year's Red Sox in and no new rally song can overcome that.
Now don't pity the devoted Boston fans. They may think this year is the year all the way up until the minute their team is mathematically eliminated from playoff contention. The next day they will proclaim that next year must be the year. They are programmed to helplessly hold out hope.
Consider this recent conversation I witnessed between a Red Sox and Yankee fan.
Yankee Fan: "Pedro Sucks!"
Red Sox Fan: "Jeter Sucks!"
Yankee Fan: "You can start talking when you win a ring."
Red Sox Fan: "This is finally our year. We're going all the way!"
Yankee Fan: "You will go your whole life without seeing the Red Sox win the World Series." [End of debate.]
Now that is as solid a predication as you can make in sports.
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