While tour guides often harp on the marvelous traditions that this fine University has embraced, one tradition is often ignored in the U-guide speech. Outside of the Rotunda or the honor code, a growing tradition has taken hold of Virginia the past four years -- the inevitable collapse of the men's basketball team.
It seems each year around this time there is an aura of optimism around the University that the team could make a postseason appearance. Each time this hope is quickly shattered as the team regresses in play and finds itself grappling for an NIT bid.
After Hurricane Redick tore apart the much-improved Virginia defense this past weekend (and made one unnamed sports columnist quite happy), the wreckage was severe. Like a scene from the horror flick Hostel, the Wahoos were gored to the tune of 20-2 in the opening five minutes and left for dead without a single blood platelet in hand.
The ghosts of Gillen once again appeared to be on the prowl for another February debacle. Yet, I will go on the record and say this season will be different. This year's Blue Devil team is more the exception than the rule in a weaker ACC conference. More importantly, this year the Virginia faithful have a true coach to rally the troops for the second half of the ACC season.
Maybe I'm just a poor fourth year who wants to see just one NCAA tournament bid in my years at the University, but I don't think a bid is out of the question.
Currently, the squad stands at 4-3 in the ACC. Any ACC Tournament talk must begin with the five teams from the conference that are a reasonable lock for the tourney (B.C., Maryland, N.C. State, UNC and Duke).
While the ACC is not having an incredibly strong year, it is still ranked in the top three of conference RPI rankings. In the new 12-team alignment of the ACC, it seems quite reasonable to assume that at least six ACC teams reach the tourney.
So the question remains, what does Virginia need to get that last berth? Let's keep in mind that a 7-9 ACC record has gotten teams into the tourney in previous years. With Virginia's weak out-of-conference record, a stronger record of 9-7 will be necessary to go dancing come March.
Next, a glance at the remaining schedule shows a less daunting task than in previous years. In forecasting a final record, two assumptions were made: This is a tough Virginia team at home, and Leitao will improve this team as the season continues. While point one is a fairly obvious and universal facet of collegiate basketball, the second point is slightly more controversial. Some will argue that a young team would hit a wall and become fatigued by the end of a tough ACC season. However, Leitao's ability to command the respect of this young squad yields a glimmer of hope that the team will continue to improve over the course of the rest of the season.
A look at the remaining road games shows this team could reasonably finish with two more road wins and three more road losses. Road games at N.C. State, Maryland and UNC appear to be tough competition, while Clemson and FSU appear to be very winnable contests.
While the home schedule is not easy, with the tenacity this team has shown at home, I would take my chances with them any day. Virginia should be able to handle both Virginia Tech and Wake Forest easily at home. Although Boston College and Maryland will clearly be a challenge, this team has already shown a propensity to defend the U-Hall court in convincing wins against tough foes UNC and Miami. Both Boston College and Maryland come to Charlottesville towards the end of the season, which should give the Hoos an edge. Coach Leitao has often said in interviews that this team is just starting to understand his coaching style. This leads one to believe that this will be an even stronger Wahoo team after a full season of coaching.
To be realistic, let's say the team loses one of those winnable games. This puts the team at a final conference record of 9-7. An opening win in the ACC tournament should be enough to send the Hoos dancing in March for the first time since 2001.
I completely understand that these are lofty expectations for an extremely young team. Yet, I maintain my stance that this team under the tutelage of an amazing coach has a very reasonable chance to make a March Madness run and break the tradition of a February collapse. Even Mr. Jefferson would admit that some time--honored traditions are better off changed.
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