As Senator George Allen's poll numbers continue to fall in the wake of his reference to University student S.R. Sidarth as "macaca," Virginia voters are anticipating recently announced upcoming debates between incumbent Allen and Democratic challenger Jim Webb.
Future debates, the first of which will be held Sept. 17 on MSNBC's "Meet the Press" and the second being moderated by George Stephanoupolos the next day, are expected to magnify clear differences between the candidates, particularly their views on the war in Iraq. Webb has been an outspoken opponent of the Iraq war, which Allen has supported as a Senator.
Politics Prof. Larry Sabato predicted the war in Iraq will serve as a key issue during both debates, second only to Allen's "macaca" guffaw. While the Iraq war had been the focal point of much of the campaign season, Allen's remarks to Sidarth, who was following the Allen campaign as a volunteer for Webb at a campaign rally in southwestern Virginia, may be significantly contributing to the increasingly tight race. Allen apologized personally to Sidarth on Tuesday.
"That [comment] is something that is just not going to fade," Sabato said. "Allen apologized to our student, but it's too little too late. After a whole series of non-apology apologies and contradictory excuse-making from his campaign, this is awfully late -- and is a permanent part of the campaign."
According to Webb spokesperson Jessica Smith, this issue has caused the formerly sizable gap in the polls between Webb and Allen to narrow quickly.
"The most telling poll is the Survey USA poll that came out yesterday," said Smith. "In the last Survey USA poll, Webb was down 19 points, and, as of yesterday, there was a three-point difference, which is very significant for an incumbent senator who is the former governor of the state."
Allen's spokesperson Bill Bozin dismissed these polls. "These polls go up and down -- you can't pay too much attention to them," he said in an e-mail.
Smith cited stem cell research and Virginia's gay marriage amendment as other important social issues that will arise during the debates and agreed that the war in Iraq will be the most contentious debate topic.
"Jim Webb thought [the war in Iraq] was a mistake from the beginning, and has said all along that this administration didn't have the foresight when they were going into Iraq, while George Allen has been a staunch supporter of the war since the beginning," Smith said. "That's one of the biggest themes in this campaign."
According to Bozin, the debates will serve as a platform for George Allen to describe his experience in political office, something Bozin said Webb is sorely lacking.
"These debates are an opportunity for Senator Allen to demonstrate, as he did in the first debate, his experience working for the people of Virginia as governor and senator and his vision for the future," Bozin said. "Jim Webb does not have this experience and it showed in the last debate, when he was unaware of a major economic issue in Virginia -- Craney Island. At the first debate [held by the Virginia Bar Association], it was clear who was the sitting U.S. senator and who was the novelist on stage."
According to Sabato, Allen's experience gives him a clear advantage going into the debates.
"In Allen's case, we know more, we've seen him in a number of different circumstances over the years," Sabato said. "He tends to be folksy, which is his style. Webb doesn't have political experience and it shows. That's the major problem for Webb -- he's not used to the debate formats, and he has to pick it up quickly."
Sabato said that while "Bush and the war's unpopularity plus Allen's own mistakes have made this contest potentially competitive," Allen is the favorite, adding that debates rarely make a difference or truly influence voters.
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