As we barrel toward opening day of the 2012 season, two countervailing forces shape expectations for the Virginia football team: optimism stemming from the Cavaliers’ first bowl appearance since 2007 and anxiety about the significant roster turnover. Though several vital components of last year’s 8-5 squad return for 2012, 11 new starters will grace the field against Richmond this Saturday. More than anyone, coach Mike London comprehends the magnitude of the task ahead of his team on the heels of an uplifting season.
“We’ve been trying to prepare for that since spring practice, since early part of camp, talking about not only do you have to win your games at home, you got to be able to win tough games on the road,” London said. “Last year was last year.”
Here are four huge factors in Virginia’s quest for a second consecutive winning season for the first time since 2004-5:
1. Well-grounded offense
Despite the hoopla surrounding the competition for starting quarterback, Virginia’s stable of dynamic running backs represents the true catalyst of the team’s offensive attack. Virginia’s electrifying duo of diminutive speedsters, senior Perry Jones and sophomore Kevin Parks, will spearhead Virginia’s ground game after amassing a combined 1,624 yards rushing and 14 touchdowns in 2011. Given that senior left tackle and ESPN preseason All-American Oday Aboushi and junior right tackle Morgan Moses highlight the offensive line, expect offensive coordinator Bill Lazor to depend heavily on Jones and Parks on the edges in both the running and passing games.
“Perry and Kevin Parks can run your zone plays — you put them in the game at the same time and use them as pass-rushing threats,” London said.
The task of countering the “lightning” Jones and Parks provide to the running game will fall largely on the shoulders of thunderous sophomore Clifton Richardson. A formidable threat in spot-duty last season with a team-leading 5.1 yards per carry, Richardson will need to pound the middle of the defense to open lanes on the outside for Jones and Parks. And with another running back, sophomore Khalek Shepherd, shining in this month’s fall camp, Virginia will be spoiled for choice in the backfield.
“Running back is a deep position where you have a lot of guys that can get it done,” London said.
2. Rocco’s modern life?
In his first seven appearances last season, then-sophomore quarterback Michael Rocco played with the tentativeness and inconsistency of a first-year starter, often shying away from big-play opportunities and throwing needless interceptions. But in the final six, Rocco emerged as one of the steadiest gunslingers in the ACC, buying into his own skills and brandishing the swagger and leadership that effective NCAA quarterbacks exude. By all accounts, the now reappointed starter Rocco has improved both his physical abilities and his intangibles in the offseason.
”Over the summer I trained hard,” Rocco said. “As a quarterback you’re looked at as a leader, and if you’re not in great shape it’s hard to look at a guy as a leader.”
And his teammates agree.
“He’s more comfortable right now,” wide receiver Tim Smith said. “He really took a stronger role in leadership.”
Although Rocco has shown the requisite signs of maturing into a top ACC quarterback, Phillip Sims’ physical talents necessitate that he see at least some playing time. London and Lazor must maintain a delicate balance between trusting in Rocco and using him as a back-up enough to positively impact a game — the same balance that, with Rocco and David Watford sharing snaps, largely failed the team last year.
Rocco, then, will wield a momentous impact on the Cavaliers’ offensive attack. If he excels, he’ll need to remain confident while yielding several snaps a game to Sims and his rocket arm. If Rocco struggles, London will have to decide between weathering the storm with his original starter or handing full reign over to the enthralling Alabama transfer.
3. Secondary: a primary concern
The Virginia defense is a study in contrasts. On the one hand, veteran studs such as senior middle linebacker Steve Greer and senior weakside linebacker LaRoy Reynolds imbue the squad with veteran moxie. On the other, Virginia joins Florida State, North Texas and LSU as the only four FBS schools with no seniors in its secondary.
Sophomore cornerback Demetrious Nicholson should hold his own in his second year as a full starter, but the rest of the secondary has a lot to prove. Sophomore Drequan Hoskey, a former track star who Smith said “has gotten a lot better since he got here,” is nevertheless sure to be isolated and attacked by opportunistic offensive coordinators.
In addition, sophomore safeties Anthony Harris and Brandon Phelps may struggle to emulate graduated seniors Rodney McLeod and Corey Mosley.
Playing in front of an untested secondary, the front seven will have to generate more than the 20 sacks it mustered in 2011. Defensive coordinator Jim Reid and the players have gushed about the pass rush all throughout fall camp, but unless the down lineman and linebackers prove their mettle on game day, opposing coaches will dissect an inexperienced trio of defensive backs.
If the back four hold their own and the front seven supply a consistent pass rush, as Greer believes they can, Virginia can once again contend for a prominent bowl selection.
“There’s a lot of potential,” Greer said. “We’ve got some really good athletes, some really good young guys … as long as we stay focused and execute the game plan, we could do some special things on defense.”
4. Special delivery
London and special teams coordinator Anthony Poindexter know they have a kicker in Drew Jarrett. Jarrett can make kicks in practice. But London and Poindexter are still waiting to see if he can do the same thing with a racing heartbeat, a pursuing defense and tens of thousands of screaming fans staring straight at him.
“Both of them have hit 50-yarders and both have missed 25-yarders, and I think the telltale of that will be in a live game with the crowd yelling and screaming and with the implications behind every miss or every make,” London said of his two kickers, Jarrett and redshirt freshman Ian Frye.
In close games, a clutch place kicker can be the most important player on the field in his 30-second cameo. Then-senior Robert Randolph was just that in the Cavaliers 34-31 Sept. 11 win against Indiana last season, going 4-for-4 in field goals including the game-winner as time expired.
If Jarrett can provide a similar lift when called upon, his leg and composure could make the difference in a few nail-biters.
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