Graduate guard Romi Levy heaved the basketball and watched it arc through the tense air inside the KFC Yum! Center. Then, from long distance, the ball found the bottom of the net, and Virginia landed the dagger in its win at then-No. 8 Louisville.
In one shot, Virginia’s entire trajectory has changed.
The Cavaliers, once on the outside looking in, are squarely on the right side of the NCAA Tournament bubble with a signature victory in hand.
Now, the job is to stay on that right side of the bubble. Virginia’s final two games are home bouts with No. 21 North Carolina and Virginia Tech — the latter of which is a must-win game, considering the Hokies are also on the cusp of the Big Dance.
Meanwhile, the Cavaliers can afford a loss to the Tar Heels. After all, North Carolina has been ranked for the latter half of the 2025-26 season. But what would a win mean?
If Virginia can upset North Carolina, then the Cavaliers could unofficially clinch an NCAA Tournament spot regardless of the result of their game against the Hokies and the upcoming ACC Tournament.
Defeating the Tar Heels — especially after defeating the Cardinals — is not impossible. Virginia has done it before.
Coach Amaka Agugua-Hamilton has a trio of top-10 wins late in the season during her four campaigns at Virginia. One of these came Sunday at Louisville. Another came at then-No. 8 North Carolina in the 2025 season— buoying the Cavaliers’ ACC seeding. Much has changed since then, but a few key lessons from that duel still apply.
In that 78-75 win on the Tar Heels’ home floor, star junior guard Kymora Johnson was supported by three other double-digit scorers. Virginia is at its best when Johnson is not playing hero ball all by herself — as evidenced by the Louisville win co-authored by Levy and senior guard Paris Clark.
But while Johnson cannot be the team’s only star, she must still shine the brightest. Last year against North Carolina, Johnson was the Cavaliers’ fourth-leading scorer, yet led the team in rebounds, assists and steals.
Another applicable point from the 2025 matchup is a ferocious effort in the game’s waning minutes. Last time Virginia faced the Tar Heels, it outscored North Carolina 48-34 in the second half. The Cavaliers may have trailed by 11 at halftime, but their fourth-quarter performance was crucial — a recurring pattern for a Virginia squad that has squandered a few games in crunch time.
Currently, the Tar Heels feature the ACC’s top scoring defense and a balanced offensive attack in which no player averages more than 11 points per game. As a result, North Carolina sits third in the ACC standings.
As for the Cavaliers, they rank sixth in the conference, a major opportunity to ascend higher with wins over the Tar Heels and Virginia Tech. Conference standings are valuable, as they directly determine ACC Tournament seeding. The top four teams get a double bye and automatically reach the quarterfinals. With this in mind, higher seeding could produce an easier path in the conference tournament.
Virginia could benefit greatly from a quality ACC Tournament run. Agugua-Hamilton has a 1-3 record in the conference tournament — a mark that has not assisted the Cavaliers’ efforts to break an eight-year NCAA Tournament drought.
While Virginia has often had to scratch and claw just to stay afloat in the talented ACC, the 2025-26 Cavaliers have newfound expectations. Virginia became just the fourth team to win at Louisville this season — the other three teams are all ranked.
But Virginia has always had talent. Now, with the internal expectation to play meaningful postseason basketball, a matchup against a ranked opponent like North Carolina is no longer an uphill battle.
In front of what could be a raucous crowd at John Paul Jones Arena, the Cavaliers can make significant bounds towards breaking a lengthy NCAA Tournament drought.
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