The last time Virginia and Virginia Tech shared a basketball court, it took three overtimes to settle things — and not in the Cavaliers’ favor. This time, No. 13 Virginia would prefer not to give the Hokies that chance.
The Cavaliers (26-4, 14-3 ACC) host the Hokies (19-11, 8-9 ACC) Saturday at noon in John Paul Jones Arena, a dramatic regular-season finale for both teams and a rivalry bookend that carries stakes far beyond the Smithfield Commonwealth Clash.
According to Thomas Hughes, the lead editor for Virginia Tech On SI, this may be the last bullet in the chamber for Virginia Tech — an “at large-or-bust” audition for the NCAA Tournament Selection Committee.
“[Virginia Tech has] one last shot to do it, and it's, well … hard enough, looking at historical precedents,” Hughes said. “You walk into JPJ and essentially, unless you can somehow win the ACC tournament, your season is on the line. It is essentially win or go home — and home, in this case, is the [National Invitational Tournament].”
For Virginia, it is a chance to avenge a bruising New Year’s Eve loss, and, in the process, deliver a fatal blow to its rival’s March Madness aspirations.
“If you're a U.Va. fan, with one of [Virginia Tech’s] best teams in years, [it's] ‘We can deal the crippling blow that knocks them out,’ ‘We can be the ones to put an end to the Virginia Tech March Madness hopes,’” Hughes said. “That would, A, be the ultimate vindication for U.Va. after losing, and B, also propel as a jumping board in the ACC tournament.”
On point “A,” the Cavaliers will certainly be looking for vindication. The Hokies won 95-85 in triple overtime on New Year’s Eve behind a herculean effort from sophomore guard Ben Hammond, who scored 20 of his 30 points and went 10-12 from the free throw line in the three extra periods alone. Freshman center Christian Gurdak hauled in 19 rebounds, while junior forward Amani Hansberry added 15, and Virginia Tech outshot the Cavaliers 41-15 from the charity stripe.
But that game came without graduate guard Jacari White, who was sidelined with a wrist injury. White, who has never faced Virginia Tech in his career despite being recruited for his graduate year by the Hokies, will add an offensive dimension that Virginia lacked in Blacksburg. Virginia Tech, too, was without senior forward Tobi Lawal.
White’s return theoretically helps to address Virginia’s most glaring weakness from the first meeting — three-point shooting. The Cavaliers went 10-for-45 from the arc on New Year’s Eve, a 22-percent clip that would have been fatal sooner in the game had the Hokies not been similarly frigid from the perimeter.
The trouble is that Virginia’s perimeter struggles have not been confined to a single game. The Cavaliers shot 7-for-35 from three in their loss to No. 1 Duke Saturday, and even in Tuesday’s win over Wake Forest, converted just 10-for-32 from deep.
For a team that has otherwise produced offensively at a rate not seen since 2001, long before even Tony Bennett, the three-point inconsistency remains a persistent malady, and White alone cannot cure it — especially after his 1-6 and 2-7 performances against Duke and Wake Forest.
Against a Virginia Tech defense that ranks top-25 nationally in opponent three-point percentage, Virginia will need to find cleaner looks and convert them — something the Cavaliers have not done with regularity over the past several weeks.
Where White may address Virginia’s perimeter, Lawal fortifies the Hokies’ interior. The senior scored 20 points in Virginia Tech’s win over Boston College and grabbed seven boards. He adds a rim-running and shot-blocking dimension alongside Hansberry and Gurdak, further deepening Coach Mike Young’s frontcourt rotation to match the Cavaliers’ size.
Beyond changes to the roster, the two programs have travelled along vastly different paths since New Year's Eve.
Virginia’s season has been nothing short of resurgent. A nine-game winning streak vaulted the Cavaliers into the top-16 of the NCAA Selection Committee's preliminary bracket reveal, and even the drubbing at the hands of the Blue Devils did little to erode their body of work. Tuesday's 75-70 win over Wake Forest — in which five different Cavaliers scored in double figures — locked up the No. 2 seed and a double-bye in the ACC Tournament.
Conversely, Virginia Tech’s has been defined by what might have been. The Hokies own a 2-9 record in Quad 1 games — with two of those losses coming on shots in the final five seconds against Wake Forest and SMU — and are trying to return to March Madness for the first time in four years.
“It's the Jekyll and Hyde thing of where this team is on it and then off it,” Hughes said. “It's hot and cold, but it feels like this team is going to be just cold enough to keep it out of March Madness.”
At the center of that volatility is Neoklis Avdalas, the 6-foot-9 point guard whose height and court vision had him touted as an NBA prospect early in the year — but whose shot selection has frustrated Hokie fans all season. But even when his shots are not falling, Avdalas still has a large amount of influence on the court with his distribution, ball handling and ability to find the open man.
Performances of key players aside, history also favors the Cavaliers. Virginia Tech has traditionally struggled in JPJ, with the all-time record there being 43-13 in favor of Virginia.
“I feel way better in a neutral site about them beating U.Va., just because of the House of Horrors kind of element to U.Va. playing [Virginia Tech] at U.Va.,” Hughes said. “You feel a lot better about Virginia Tech taking down Virginia, if it's either [at Virginia Tech] or neutral, just down to this historical precedence.”
For Virginia, Saturday is an opportunity to close the regular season on a definitive note — split the season series and send the Cavaliers into the ACC Tournament with momentum. A win would also give Virginia 27 regular-season wins, the most since the 2018-19 national championship season. Hughes expects it to be close — but not close enough.
“Virginia didn't really create separation from Virginia Tech at any point, and those two teams were kind of engaging in another one of those rock fights back in December,” Hughes said. “I think that that's going to happen again on Saturday, but I think that Virginia has a little bit more in this one.”
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