Virginia Primary Election Day — live updates and results

Recent updates obtained by The Cavalier Daily from student-serving polling places suggest that early voting patterns are manifesting themselves in Election Day totals. Early vote totals showed a greater number of CD-5’s voters cast Democratic ballots in advance than two years ago.

Subsequently, at 11:45 a.m., a greater percentage of Election Day voters at Miller requested Democratic ballots than in June 2024. This trend was mirrored at Trailblazer, where at 1:08 p.m. 13 voters had cast a Democratic ballot — 59 percent of the 2024 total — and 2 voters had cast a Republican ballot — just 6 percent of the 2024 total. Virginia’s primaries allow all voters to freely request a Democratic or Republican ballot, and voters in the Commonwealth do not need to register with a particular party.

If early voting patterns were also an accurate predictor of turnout overall, this could mean CD-5 is on track to witness a slightly greater number of voters cast a ballot in the primary election overall than two years ago.

However, it is unclear whether more students are voting now than in 2024. The Trailblazer precinct, which serves a notably high proportion of students to Charlottesville residents, appears to be falling behind in relation to other precincts. At around midday, both the Miller and Johnson polling places reported that around 45 percent of the 2024 electorate had cast a ballot, while Trailblazer’s 15 voters constituted just 34 percent of Election Day voters in June of 2024.

Whatever the increase in primary voters this year in CD-5, students are on track to be slightly underrepresented in that increase — meaning the increase is less visible among the student population than other voters.

Kyle Kondik, managing editor of Sabato’s Crystal Ball, said in an email to The Cavalier Daily that it would be a “shock” if either Congressional Candidate John McGuire (R) or Congressional Candidate Tom Perriello (D) face challenges in their respective primaries.

Kondik also noted that protest votes against forerunners are common in primary elections. A protest vote is a vote cast to express disapproval of available political candidates running for elections, and some ways these votes can take form is by voters submitting blank ballots or voting for non-mainstream political parties. He said these types of votes have appeared in both Republican and Democratic contests this cycle, which he described as a broader sign of voter frustration.

The share of votes received by McGuire and Perriello in their respective primaries will likely have little, if any, significant predictive value for the November general election, Kondik added. He added that the 5th Congressional District remains Republican-leaning — making McGuire the favorite in November.

“Ultimately, this is a clearly Republican-leaning district, so McGuire is favored, but in a Democratic wave environment, Perriello could pull off an upset,” Kondik wrote.

As of 12:48 p.m., Tall Oaks Elementary — also known as the Johnson voting precinct — reported that 52 voters have cast a ballot thus far, and one voter has cast a provisional ballot.

The 52 ballots comprise roughly 45.6 percent of the total number of Election Day voters at Johnson in 2024, when 114 voters cast a ballot. 894 voters also cast Election Day ballots at Johnson in the April redistricting referendum when students were still on Grounds for the spring semester.

Johnson — a compact precinct which encompasses much of the off Grounds housing along Jefferson Park Avenue — serves a significant number of students who live and rent in the City. Election officials at the precinct reported that they have had a “slow day,” with very few student-aged voters appearing to turn out.

It remains to be seen whether the greater number of early voters in Charlottesville will correlate with increased turnout at student-serving precincts on Election Day, and by how much.

As of 11:45 a.m., The Miller Center — the voting precinct that includes areas of Albemarle County just outside of Grounds — reported 43 total ballots cast, with 28 Democratic ballots and 15 Republican ballots. There had been no provisional ballots cast thus far at the Miller Center. In the last Congressional primary June 18, 2024, 95 ballots were cast by the end of election day, meaning that the Miller Center precinct has received about 45 percent of the total ballots cast in the last congressional primary with about seven hours remaining before polls close.

Additionally, by the end of Election Day in the 2024 primary, 35 Democratic ballots and 60 Republican ballots had been cast.

For the 2026 Congressional Redistricting Referendum April 21, 249 ballots were cast at the Miller Center by the end of Election Day, a higher voter turnout than the 2024 primaries by 154 ballots.

In a written statement to The Cavalier Daily, House Candidate Rob Tracinski (D) said he is running on “the most focused and effective agenda for restoring the power of Congress,” urging voters who are just tuning into the primary to visit his campaign website.

Democratic candidates in the 5th Congressional District primary such as Rep. Tom Perriello and Dr. Suzanne Krzyzanowski have emphasized a range of issues, including affordability and health care. Tracinski’s campaign includes issues such as affordability and healthcare, but also emphasizes constitutional issues, particularly executive power and congressional oversight. According to Tracinski’s website, he believes “Congress has become a rubber stamp for an out-of-control executive,” and argues that Congress must reclaim its constitutional authority as a check on presidential power.

While Congressional Candidate Tom Perriello (D) is widely viewed as the Democratic frontrunner in Virginia’s 5th District, he must win a contested three-way primary Tuesday to officially become his party’s nominee.

In a written statement to The Cavalier Daily Monday, Perriello encouraged students to vote in the primary, framing the contest as their first opportunity to express discontent with his likely Republican opponent, Congressman John McGuire (R), at the ballot box by supporting his campaign.

“This primary is the first chance for students and other voters to express how hungry they are to fire John McGuire and all of the politicians responsible for skyrocketing prices, rampant corruption and [the] sheer stupidity coming out of Washington,” Perriello wrote.

Perriello, whose campaign is largely focused on the issue of affordability, asserted that Congress is making decisions which will “cost young people jobs” and leave them in debt. He argued that significant student turnout sends a message to the Democratic Party to give these issues greater attention in its agenda.

“Elections are about choices, but those decisions are made by who shows up,” Perriello wrote. “Please, vote tomorrow — and know that I’m grateful for every student who has shown up to be part of this conversation.”

The McGuire campaign issued a press release Sunday, in which he encouraged Republicans in the district to cast a ballot in Tuesday’s election. The release highlighted that McGuire’s primary areas of focus are ensuring stronger border security, promoting election integrity and keeping “boys [out of] girls’ sports.” It also indicated McGuire is working to ensure government benefits are not available for undocumented immigrants in the U.S.

Senate Candidate Kim Farington (R) wrote in a statement to The Cavalier Daily that she was “looking forward to Election Day” and grateful for the support she has received throughout the campaign. Farington, a certified public accountant and entrepreneur, was the first of the Republican Senate candidates to announce her bid for the seat in November of 2024.

“Campaigns are ultimately about earning trust one voter at a time,” Farington wrote. “I'm grateful for the opportunity to earn the support of Virginia's voters.”

Farington thanked students at the University and across the Commonwealth for their engagement in the race, encouraging them to read up on the candidates and policies and to cast a ballot.

“To the students at U.Va. and across the Commonwealth … your vote is your voice,” Farington wrote. “Take the time to learn about the candidates, participate in the process and make your voice heard on Election Day.”

Jason Doll, a former programs intern with the Center for Politics and rising third-year College student, shared his beliefs about the importance of democracy in Tuesday’s primary election. He emphasized the importance of civic engagement among college-aged students, explaining that the youth vote is able to outlast older generations of voters. He stressed his belief that without the youth vote, America's democracy may turn into an oligarchy.

“Democracy isn’t perpetual. Like any movement, once it loses momentum, it stops. Voting is the accelerator — civic engagement, its force,” Doll wrote. “If youth never vote, democracy ages with dying generations until a handful of the population holds the entire vote. Then it becomes oligarchy, or something worse.”

As of 9:52 a.m., Trailblazer Elementary — the voting precinct that includes student housing along 14th Street, Wertland Street and Grady Avenue — reported five total ballots cast and no provisional ballots. In Virginia’s last Congressional Primary June 18, 2024 — also while many students were away for summer break — there were 43 total ballots cast by the end of election day, meaning that Trailblazer had received about 11.6 percent of the total ballots cast in the 2024 election.

During the 2026 Congressional Redistricting Referendum that took place April 21, 612 voters cast ballots at Trailblazer by the end of election day — a notable increase in voter turnout while students were on Grounds during the spring semester.

In a written statement to The Cavalier Daily Monday, Taylor Yowell, Charlottesville’s general registrar and director of elections, confirmed that there has not been a significant increase in the number of students voting early this primary election when compared to previous years.

Most University students do not return to Grounds from summer break in time to vote in Virginia’s primaries, though some remain in Charlottesville during the summer months to work jobs or take additional courses. With the primary date being moved from June to August, the 45-day early voting period was also pushed back, and early voting took place entirely during the summer months instead of beginning in the usual month of May, when students are wrapping up the spring semester.

In the primary election in June 2024, the student-serving Charlottesville precincts of Trailblazer and Johnson both saw a proportionally lower number of voters cast early ballots than the City as a whole. Roughly 3 percent of active registered voters from the Johnson precinct cast early ballots, and just 1.3 percent of active registered voters from Trailblazer voted early. Charlottesville’s total number of early voters that year sat at roughly 4.2 percent of the City’s active electorate. These early trends in 2024 correlated with similarly low turnout at student-serving precincts in 2024's Primary Election Day.

If Yowell’s assessment of student turnout is correct, a low number of students are likely to have cast ballots so far in this election, and University students are once again on track to comprise a relatively small portion of the City’s primary vote electorate.

In an email to The Cavalier Daily, Senate Candidate Bert Mizusawa (R) wrote that his campaign is “optimistic” about his chances of winning today’s primary election. Currently, Mizusawa has outraised both of his Republican opponents by a significant margin. However, a poll by the Public Sentiment Institute in June showed his opponent, Senate Candidate Kim Farington (R), in the lead, and that most voters were still undecided.

Mizusawa encouraged University students voting in the Senate primary to weigh the Republican candidates’ records before casting their ballot.

“We encourage students to look at what the candidates have done, not what they say, and make an informed decision on voting day,” Mizusawa wrote.

Mizusawa’s website notes that he is a retired Major General and former Deputy Under Secretary in the U.S. Army. Farington is an entrepreneur who served as the Chief Financial Officer of the First Responder Network Authority — a government-authorized system that provides a unified, high-speed internet connection for First Responders nationwide. The third candidate in the race, Senate Candidate David Williams (R), was an officer in the U.S. Marines, and he worked at both the U.S. State Department and the Central Intelligence Agency.

In a statement to The Cavalier Daily Sunday, Semony Shah, University Democrats president and rising fourth-year Commerce student, encouraged students to vote in Tuesday’s Congressional primaries.

“The University Democrats at U.Va. strongly [encourage] every student on Grounds to vote in the upcoming primary,” Shah wrote. “Voting is critical to shaping the Democratic party's future as we prepare to re-elect Sen. Mark Warner (D) and flip Virginia’s 5th Congressional District.”

Shah also confirmed that while UDems does not endorse in primaries, any of the three candidates who wins the Democratic nod in the 5th Congressional District will have the organization’s full support in the fall. UDems’ mobilization efforts will include canvassing across the district on weekends, Commonwealth-wide phonebanking and tabling around Grounds to register students for the November General election.

Mobilizing the University’s student population will be critical to the Democrats’ strategy, helping to counteract the largely Republican electorate in Southside — a rural region of Southern Virginia — and the wealthy Richmond suburbs. Thousands of late-arriving provisional ballots in Montgomery County — home to Virginia Polytechnic Institute — and Harrisonburg — home to James Madison University — boosted Democratic candidates in Republican-leaning House of Delegates districts last fall.

College Republicans, which has a no media statements policy, did not respond to The Cavalier Daily’s inquiries about the primary election.