With roughly 40 days left until Election Day, the Miller Center for Public Affairs hosted a panel discussion Monday with some of the University’s leading experts in politics. Panelists shared their insights on how they believe key races in the 2026 midterm cycle are unfolding, and they emphasized key issues that will be deciding factors in elections moving forward.
In 2026, voters across the country will elect candidates to all 435 seats in the U.S. House of Representatives, as well as one-third of U.S. Senators. These midterm Congressional elections are generally viewed as an opportunity for voters to evaluate the incumbent President’s performance in their first two years in office.
Monday’s panel was moderated by Mike Emanuel, chief Washington correspondent for Fox News. Kyle Kondik, managing editor of Sabato’s Crystal Ball, Politics Prof. Jennifer Lawless and Doug Sosnik, senior advisor at the Brunswick Group and a former advisor to President Bill Clinton (D), joined Emanuel for the discussion.
Panelists generally agreed that races across the country are shaping up in Democrats’ favor, with Lawless noting that a number of elections in Republican-leaning states are supposedly becoming more competitive as the cycle wears on. According to the Economist, Decision Desk HQ and other forecasts, Democrats’ chances of taking back Congress are rapidly increasing, all while President Donald Trump’s approval ratings have reached an all-time low.
“I think Democrats today, six weeks out, should be pretty happy,” Lawless said. “I've been somewhat surprised that the Democrats have been able to consistently hold the edge when it comes to the likelihood of taking back the House of Representatives, and over the course of the last couple of months, more and more Senate races have become competitive … if I were a betting person, I would say that it'll probably be a good night for Democrats.”
Sosnik also pointed out that midterm elections regularly have “a different pool of voters,” where motivated voters are overrepresented in the electorate, unlike in presidential elections. He noted one New York Times poll indicating 52 percent of Americans strongly disapprove of Trump — indicating a particularly motivated anti-Trump base.
“In Minnesota, there were over 100,000 people marching in 0-degree weather in January against [Immigration and Customs Enforcement],” Sosnik said. “I think they're going to vote in November.”
Kondik and Sosnik both noted, however, that a few factors in the changing national landscape could also be limiting Democrats’ room for growth. Democrats already hold 214 seats in the House, a relatively high number for a party that just lost the presidency, Kondik said.
Sosnik pointed out that the national political environment is increasingly polarized. With more voters solidly in the Democratic and Republican camps than in years prior, this theoretically leaves fewer House and Senate seats where independent and swing voters can actually sway the final results in a challenger’s favor, according to Sosnik.
The three panelists largely agreed on which major issues they believe are at the top of voters’ minds, including affordability, or the ongoing conflict with Iran.
The United States and Israel launched strikes on Iran in February, killing Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and targeting the country’s nuclear and military infrastructure, leading to a prolonged conflict between both nations. The conflict has also led to a global rise in gas prices, and one Fox News poll found that 60 percent of respondents believe Trump made the “wrong decision” by getting the U.S. involved.
“[In] any sporting event, there's usually one or two moments in a game that decide the outcome. And a lot of times, in real time, you'll say ‘that's it,’” Sosnik said. “It's the same in politics … the inflection point in this election [was] the decision to go into war in February, and all the data can show … how much it hurt Trump and Republicans.”
For the 435 House races, while Sosnik conceded that a possible wave might be “reduced” by the current national environment, he said those who “follow the money” will notice that Democrats still believe they can come away with substantial gains this year. He cited a recent Punchbowl News and AdImpact analysis which showed that of the 44 House districts where Democrats are most heavily investing this cycle, 41 were won by Trump in 2024.
Kondik pointed out that at least three House seats which would be early indicators of a “blue wave” this year are located in Virginia. These districts are Virginia’s First Congressional District in the eastern portion of the Commonwealth, the Second Congressional District in the Hampton Roads region and the Fifth Congressional District — where Charlottesville is located. He said if Democrats could carry all three, it would be a “megawave,” while if Republican incumbents in these seats perform well, this would signal a trend of more mild gains for the Democratic party nationally.
For the Senate, panelists discussed a number of key races that they believe will determine which party takes control of the Senate. Democrats ultimately need to pick up at least four Republican seats in order to win back the chamber.
Panelists spent a significant amount of time discussing the Texas Senate race, where State Rep. James Talarico (D) is facing State Attorney General Ken Paxton (R). After winning Trump’s endorsement in the May 26 primary runoff election, Paxton easily defeated incumbent Sen. John Cornyn (R) to advance to the November General Election. Paxton, who previously faced fraud and now-dismissed corruption charges, is described by local media outlets as a “controversial” candidate. Polling indicates Talarico has made inroads among Hispanic voters, and he had already raised a record-breaking $70 million in early July. Lawless said she believes this year is Democrats’ best chance to flip the state’s seat.
“Paxton is just objectively a terrible candidate,” Lawless said. “If [Texas] can’t turn blue now, it’s hard to imagine a set of demographics and candidates that would allow it to do so moving forward.”
Panelists also discussed the competitive Senate race in Maine, where Incumbent Sen. Susan Collins (R) is facing Former State Sen. President Troy Jackson (D) for re-election. Collins has served in the U.S. Senate since 1997, and is one of the few remaining senators who represents a state with a partisan tilt against her party. Jackson replaced former Senate Candidate Graham Platner (D), who dropped out amid allegations of sexual assault in July.
Lawless said she believes it is a positive sign for Jackson that Democrats quickly united behind him as the nominee. Jackson won the nomination at the party’s emergency convention with more than 99 percent of the vote. Lawless cautioned, however, that the race is anything but certain, and that Collins has previously overcome a polling disadvantage to win re-election to her seat, including when she did so in 2020.
“Every six years Susan Collins's obituary is written, and every six years it gets retracted,” Lawless said. “She seems weaker to me now than she has before.”
Lawless asserted that the race would ultimately hinge on whether Collins will lose support from independent women — who have previously supported her — in a year where most independents will likely vote Democratic. Kondik noted that unlike in 2020, there will be no presidential race at the top of the ticket. Voters who want to express their disapproval with the Trump administration, he said, may have to use their Senate ballot to do so by voting for the Democratic candidate, which would theoretically benefit Jackson.
Sosnik also asserted that there has been a major shift within American politics in the Trump era, whereby working class voters have continued to stray away from the Democratic Party. He noted that 29 of the 30 states with the lowest percentage of college graduates voted Republican in 2024. Winning these voters back, Sosnik said, will be essential for Democrats to perform well moving forward, including in “swing” states such as Iowa and Ohio.
“The Democrats cannot perform well right now in communities with a high percentage of non-college voters, because [they] think … that people like me [in] the Democratic Party look down on them,” Sosnik said. “[That we] look down on them culturally, [that we] look down on their lifestyle. … Until Democrats can become competitive with working-class voters in America, we will never be the majority party.”
Panelists also cautioned listeners to take the polls with a grain of salt this year, noting that there were significant disparities between polls and the final results in 2020, 2022 and 2024. They agreed that polls should not be used to predict elections, but are valuable snapshots in time that can provide insight into how Americans’ views are changing day by day. David Graham, a former Social Studies teacher from Minnesota who attended the event, told The Cavalier Daily that he agreed with the panelists on this point.
“I think it’s really hard to poll people now,” Graham said. “It’s not 1968 when you could just call people up … and everyone picked up [even if] they didn’t know who was calling … people tend to respond to polls [now only if] they trust the establishment a little bit more.”
Graham said that he thought the panelists’ views were interesting, and that he plans to vote in the upcoming election.
In Virginia’s Fifth Congressional District, a recent poll confirmed what panelists asserted — affordability is a top priority for voters this year.
Charlottesville sits in the heart of VA-5, where Congressional Candidate Tom Perriello (D), Congressman John McGuire (R) and Congressional Candidate Cooke Harvey (I) are competing for a seat in the House. Senate Candidate Bert Mizusawa (R) and Sen. Mark Warner (D) are running to represent the Commonwealth in the U.S. Senate.
Each House candidate has a distinct platform behind their respective campaigns. Perriello is emphasizing a fight for lower prices and transparency while supporting economic growth. McGuire, who has been endorsed by President Trump, builds his campaign on the beliefs of Pro-Life, Pro-God, Pro-Gun and Pro-Trump. Harvey has prioritized unifying Virginia’s Fifth Congressional District without the baggage of a two-party system.
In the Senate, Mizusawa centers his platform on affordability, emphasizing lower healthcare costs and increased veteran support. He strongly supports a ban on congressional stock trading and investing in nuclear energy as a low-cost option for American households. Warner focuses on citizen safety, citing a comprehensive approach to combating violent crime, gun violence and illicit drugs such as fentanyl. He also supports affordability, focusing on lowering costs for families and has led bipartisan efforts to strengthen domestic manufacturing and rebuild critical infrastructure.
Voters across VA-5 can cast their vote through early in-person voting, which began Sept. 18 and will continue through Oct. 31. With Election Day six weeks away, the Miller Center has an abundance of resources available online to inform voters on prominent issues and candidate information before casting a ballot.
Luca Bailey is a third-year College student majoring in politics from Free Union, Va. As a staffer on the news and video desks, he has covered topics ranging from the General Assembly and state elections to local politics and University governance. He is also The Cavalier Daily’s beat writer for the Charlottesville City Council.
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