For Virginia guard Justin Anderson, the decision to forgo his final year of eligibility and declare for the NBA Draft was not an easy one.
“It was definitely a tough decision,” Anderson said. “I think this was one of the biggest decisions of my life, behind maybe choosing college and maybe other things you have to do.”
While turning pro was a difficult choice for Anderson, it was ultimately the correct one.
Anderson had little to gain as an individual athlete and everything to lose by returning to Charlottesville for a fourth season.
The heart and soul of Virginia basketball rode a drastically improved three-point shot up the draft boards during the first half of the season — he was by some projections a fringe lottery prospect — before a broken finger followed by an emergency appendectomy sidelined him for the final eight games of the regular season.
The rust clearly showed in the postseason. Anderson did not make a shot in the Cavaliers’ two ACC Tournament games — he was 0-2 against Florida State and 0-4 in the UNC game.
Because of his less than stellar finish to the 2014-15 campaign, the 2014 ACC Sixth Man of the Year now rests uneasily between the late first round and early second round.
In this no-man’s land, the difference in one spot has serious monetary ramifications. Only first-round salaries are guaranteed, and where a player is taken determines the value of his contract.
According to RealGM, the 30th-overall selection is set to make $943,300 in his first season — although rookies can sign for anywhere between 80% and 120% of the value assigned to them on the scale. (See a complete breakdown of the 2015-16 rookie scale here).
Meanwhile, the 31st pick faces uncertainty as contracts for second-round selections are not guaranteed — they must be negotiated between the team and the draftee. For some context, Damien Inglis, the first pick of the second round in 2014 signed a three-year, $2,655,431 deal with the Bucks.
Anderson realizes he is a fringe first rounder, but he is not concerned about when on June 25 his name is called.
“That’s not what I worry about now,” he said. “Right now in this process I want to just be hungry and humble about everything and just be motivated to just be the best basketball player that I can be right now.”
Some might suggest that Anderson’s stock could have rebounded with a healthy senior season, but it isn’t that simple. He risks everything by staying one year too many.
Anderson’s greatest asset is his shooting, since his lack of handles severely diminishes his athleticism. As a professional offensive threat, Anderson will live by the trey. Should he take a major step back shooting the ball in his senior season, he could go undrafted.
And the latter half of the 2014-15 campaign suggests that regression could be possible, if not likely. Anderson ended the season shooting 45.2% from deep — which would have been the fifth-best mark in the NCAA had he hoisted enough shots to qualify. However, his percentage plummeted to a pedestrian 15% in his final eight regular season contests.
Even more importantly, Anderson runs the risk of injuring himself. One misstep is all it takes to end one’s professional career before it even begins.
But what about his teammates and the potential glory he has turned his back on by leaving a program that topped many of the way-too-early rankings that emerged in the wake of the National Championship game?
One could argue that Anderson already can claim his fair share of glory. While the most recent season ended in disappointment, Anderson has almost exclusively known how it feels to win in his three years with the Cavaliers. Virginia won 83 games in that span and claimed two regular season ACC titles along with the ACC tournament crown and a spot in the Sweet 16 in 2014.
More importantly, Anderson said he believes the program is in good hands. Coach Tony Bennett returns starters Malcolm Brogdon, London Perrantes and Anthony Gill, as well as key bench players — all of whom are viable options to fill the production and energy of Anderson.
“We’re going to have a great team regardless,” Anderson said. “We saw it this year with my injury and a couple of guys stepping up. The program that Coach Bennett runs here — we have guys here who are very capable of stepping up. When I made this decision, I had to realize there was no looking back.”
And there should be no looking back for fans of the team, either. Anderson’s decision is final. There is no need to second guess or pine for things that might have been. Anderson stepped into the hole left by the graduation of Joe Harris; now it is time for someone else to step up. In Tony we trust.
In short, goodbye Justin. Thank you for all the memories, and the best of luck to you.
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