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ELDER: Virginia proves it’s still a national contender

<p>Virginia's stiff defense and efficient offense have vaulted the Cavaliers into&nbsp;a four-game win streak, moving Virginia&nbsp;back up to No. 4 in the ACC standings.</p>

Virginia's stiff defense and efficient offense have vaulted the Cavaliers into a four-game win streak, moving Virginia back up to No. 4 in the ACC standings.

The computer algorithm on KenPom.com gave Virginia a 25 percent chance of beating Louisville Saturday. In its outright prediction, the statistical guru’s website pegged the Cavaliers with a 68-62 loss.

Clearly, things didn’t go as speculated.

Before Tuesday, Virginia had dropped three consecutive conference road games against mediocre at best competition – Virginia Tech, Georgia Tech and Florida State. Then, it took a miraculous comeback for the Cavaliers to come out victorious against the second-worst team — Wake Forest — in the ACC.

Yet, on the road, No. 11 Virginia looked as dominant as ever against No. 16 Louisville; in fact, it never trailed in the 63-47 victory. Meanwhile, the No. 1 team in the USA Today Coaches Poll has changed each of the past four weeks.

College basketball just doesn’t make sense this season. And that is exactly why it’s too soon to count out the Cavaliers from a deep run come March.

Since the Virginia Tech loss Jan. 4, Virginia just isn’t the same team it was a year ago, when it ascended to No. 2 in the country in the Coaches Poll for four weeks.

The Cavaliers clearly miss the defensive length and smarts of forward Darion Atkins and guard Justin Anderson. Meanwhile, the offense, although lethal at times, has a tendency to go cold on the road. The consistency on both sides of the court just hasn’t been there.

Two days after taking down Notre Dame, Virginia loses against Virginia Tech. Five days after defeating No. 8 Miami, the Cavaliers fall against Florida State.

All this from a Virginia squad that has already defeated the likes of Villanova, West Virginia and California and climbed to as high as No. 4 in the polls. Who knew if this team was consistent enough to be a threat in March?

But after defeating Louisville Saturday, a lot of that chatter should cease. The Cavaliers won, and made a statement in the process – vintage Tony Bennett basketball just might come back.

Virginia earned its second best defensive efficiency rating of the season of 77.4 – just .3 behind its best performance in the season-opening win against lowly Morgan State.

Just how good was Virginia defensively?

The Cavaliers held the Cardinals to just 14 points at the half, limiting them to shooting 21 percent from the floor. Louisville didn’t score for a 7:34 stretch in the opening stanza, and didn’t even hit double digits until 5:19 remained in the first half.

Louisville’s leading scorers – senior guards Trey Lewis and Damion Lee, who combined for 51 points in their last outing against Virginia Tech – were held to a combined 10 points.

Virginia did all of this against the No. 22 offense in the country before tipoff Saturday.

Coach Tony Bennett has reiterated throughout the season Virginia must win with its defense. After defeating Louisville, Virginia finally proved it can.

Now in the midst of a four-game win streak, Virginia is beginning to climb back into national relevance. The Cavaliers are now No. 3 in the ACC – behind North Carolina and Louisville – and just 2.5 games out of first.

Virginia has now already defeated the Cardinals, and will get to face North Carolina in the friendly confines of John Paul Jones Arena, where Virginia is 30-1 in ACC home games over the past four seasons.

Immediately following Saturday’s win – the most lopsided in the KFC Yum! Center’s history – Virginia climbed from No. 11 to No. 5 in KenPom’s rankings. The Cavalier offense stayed put at No. 9 while the defense jumped from No. 46 to No. 28 in efficiency, as of Saturday afternoon. The handy KenPom prediction calculator improved Virginia’s projected record from 22-8 to 23-7.

After two straight dominant regular seasons followed by lackluster March performances, Virginia may be doing the opposite this time around. However, this should not excuse any of the previous conference losses, but Virginia fans should know what happens in January and February matters little.

Between junior guard London Perrantes, senior guard Malcolm Brogdon and senior forward Anthony Gill, the Cavaliers have elite-caliber players to compete against the nation’s best. Also, after sticking to a nine-man rotation against Louisville until the walk-ons entered, the cohesion of the second-fiddle players should improve.

Virginia will likely drop a few more contests before the NCAA tournament, but so will other top-10 caliber teams. That’s just the way of the 2015-16 college basketball season.

But make no mistake about it, Virginia’s win against Louisville showed it can compete with any team in the country. Don’t count the Cavaliers out of the national title hunt just yet.

Robert Elder is a Sports editor for The Cavalier Daily. He can be reached at r.elder@cavalierdaily.com or on Twitter at @R_F_D_E.

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