An overflowing Wilson Hall auditorium listened last night as political pundit Larry J. Sabato, professor of government and foreign affairs, offered insights on next week's presidential elections in a "crystal ball" session hosted by the Center for Governmental Studies.
But even Sabato's crystal ball could not predict a win either way with certainty in this very tight election race.
Sabato insisted that the election was too close to call since the polls have fluctuated constantly.
There has been more change in the polls in this presidential election than during the entire polling era, Sabato said.
But after looking into his crystal ball, Sabato predicted that both candidates will win their respective assumed stronghold states. Vice President Al Gore (D) definitely will win California and much of the northeast while Texas Gov. George W. Bush (R) will grab support from Texas and Florida, he said.
Taking only candidate strongholds into account, Sabato said he believes Bush will gain the majority of the electoral votes. But "there are 88 tossups, so it really could go either way," Sabato said.
Tennessee, Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin are counted among the tossup states that are still too close to call.
Besides offering predictions for the Electoral College, Sabato offered reasons for the successes and failures of both candidates.
"I tend to think of the election as scales that keep going back and forth as people think and rethink," Sabato said.
According to Sabato, peace and prosperity in the nation will help Gore win votes next week.
Gore would be way ahead if the economy's prosperity was the only factor taken into account, but Bush has two factors in his court - scandals and personality - which will play in his favor and may undermine some of Gore's support, he said.
Gore has been plagued constantly by many of the scandals that accompany the Clinton administration, while Bush's appealing television personality may make up for some of his faults such as inexperience at the national level, Sabato said.
Del. Mitch Van Yahres (D-Charlottesville) and Del. Paul Harris (R-Albemarle), both of the Virginia General Assembly, attended last night's political prediction session.
"I think that it was very informative," said Harris, who is also the campaign chairman for George Allen's Senate race. "But I think he got a couple of the states wrong"
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