Following the Democrat's Nov. 6 capture of the Virginia governorship, many in the Republican Party are blaming Gov. James S. Gilmore III for the loss. This has raised speculation in political circles about Gilmore's future as chairman of the Republican National Committee.
Considering the eight years that Republicans have maintained control over Virginia's governor's seat and the incumbent Gilmore's powerful position as Bush's appointed chairman of the RNC, some members of political circles have insisted that Warner's victory should not have happened.
But in an effort to clear up these specific doubts about Gilmore's continued RNC leadership, President Bush recently issued a statement that confirmed that the governor would keep his job as chairman despite Republican Mark L. Earley's loss in Virginia.
"The president, clearly, does not blame Gilmore for the loss," said Larry J. Sabato, government and foreign affairs professor.
Gilmore received his RNC appointment in January 2001 after helping Bush win Virginia in a tough 2000 primary contest against Sen. John McCain (R).
But despite Bush's assurances about Gilmore's job security, political pundits still point to the governor and the Republican majority in the General Assembly for alienating voters during the campaign by participating in an inter-party budget squabble.
"What people perceived as Gilmore's intransigence on the budget issue clearly made Earley's task more difficult," said Mark J. Rozell, professor of political science at Catholic University.
Gilmore's problems with the budget impasse may not have been the only issue that contributed to Earley's defeat. One shortcoming in Earley's campaign was his comparatively fewer funds.
An enormous $20 million campaign budget, may have helped Democrat Mark R. Warner sail to victory over Earley.
Five million dollars of Warner's own money coupled with a massive fund-raising effort resulted in the $20 million budget for the Democratic candidate.
The Democratic fund-raising efforts far exceeded Earley's $10 million campaign budget, $3 million of which came from out-of-state contributions that Gilmore solicited.
"Three million dollars was well above expectations," Sabato said.
Other analysts have called the governor's race a simple tactical victory for Warner. The Democrat was praised for courting the state's moderate voters by running as a fiscal conservative and avoiding more divisive issues such as abortion.
"The Republican Party moved so far to the right in Virginia that it left the middle available," Rozell said. "You can energize your base or you can prevent the other guy from energizing his base, which is what Warner did."
In ranking the major factors affecting Earley's campaign, Sabato said Earley should take responsibility for the loss.
"The number one reason for Earley's loss was Earley, and the number two reason for his loss was his campaign," Sabato said. "Number three was the budget impasse"
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