If you follow Virginia football somewhat closely, chances are you've heard of "Grohtober" and are familiar with its meaning. With Virginia's hard-fought win against Maryland Saturday, the Cavaliers have won their last seven games played in October and 12 of the last 13. Their last October loss came Oct. 27, 2007 when they fell 29-24 to N.C. State.
The beginning of this 12-for-13 October winning streak can be traced all the way back to 2006, when Virginia defeated North Carolina and N.C. State to close out the month after suffering early October losses to East Carolina and Maryland. The N.C. State loss in 2007 was Virginia's only October loss that year. Last season, the team went undefeated in October, starting the month with a bang in a 31-0 home thumping of the Terrapins after being outscored 128-36 in the first four games of the season. Virginia went only 5-7 on the year; four of those five wins came in October. Once the calendar turned to November, the Hoos promptly dropped their final four games of the season.
This October trend has caused some fans to refer to October as "Grohtober," citing that Al Groh does his best coaching in October. Is this notion a reality or a myth? I went back to review Groh's entire career at Virginia to see how this theory actually stacks up against the stats. Certainly, in the past couple years this seems to be the case, but I also wanted to know if the pattern stretched all the way back to 2001 - Groh's first season at Virginia.
The following list is the Cavaliers' record in October for each season during Groh's tenure: 2001: 0-4; 2002: 3-1; 2003: 2-2; 2004: 2-1; 2005: 1-3; 2006: 2-2; 2007: 3-1; 2008: 4-0; 2009: 3-0. So, Groh's total career record in October is 20-14, which translates to a winning percentage of 59 percent, slightly higher than Groh's overall winning percentage of 56 percent. Based on these numbers, we can say that Groh's teams have won fairly consistently in October except during his first year. The trend, however, is in no way overwhelming and the pattern is more prominent in recent years.\nNow, let's turn to November. I figured this was when Groh might be at his worst, and indeed, the statistics supported that idea. Groh carries a 13-17 record in November, which translates to a winning percentage of 43 percent. (Note: Bowl games are not included in this analysis of November games, but one game played in December of 2001 against Penn State is included because 2001 is the only year during Groh's career to have a December game in the regular season.) Last year's 0-4 November record is really what brought the overall record down.
For the most part, the Cavs play .500 football under Groh's coaching - in fact, from 2002-2005, every Virginia team went 2-2 in November. I think last year's November has left a perception that the Cavaliers stink late in the season, but if you look more closely at the games at hand, we were a handful of plays away from defeating both Miami and Virginia Tech, which would have evened Groh's record in that month to 15-15.
Finally, let's examine Groh's September record. I know what you're thinking here: Groh's Cavaliers have been perennial slow starters. I read an article in the The Diamondback, the Maryland student newspaper, claiming this fact before Saturday's game. But, as Lee Corso would say, "Not so fast my friend." Unlike the Grohtober and November theories - which contain a kernel of truth
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