A flurry of questions hang over the heads of the No. 11 Cavaliers — can they do it against the best in the nation? Can they win against marquee programs vying for national titles? How do they shape up with the blue-blood leaders of the ACC?
The answers await them just three hours to the south. Virginia carries their nine-game win streak, the best in the nation among major conferences, into the den of the ACC’s top ranked squad. No. 1 Duke lurks in Cameron Indoor Stadium, one of the most hostile environments in college sports, ready to throw down with ACC regular-season championship implications on the line.
Virginia (25-3, 12-2 ACC) sits behind the Blue Devils (26-2, 14-1 ACC) in the ACC standings in second place. A win Saturday would tie the programs for conference losses, making the regular season conference chase a potential boat race to the postseason.
In the passing weeks, Coach Ryan Odom has expressed a need for the Cavaliers to enhance their level of play in anticipation of these types of elite matchups. Virginia went on a stretch of games against lower-tier ACC opponents, securing wins, but turning in a few performances worthy of red flags — decreased scoring output, letting subpar teams hang around deep into games and shooting droughts kept margins close.
However, Virginia has started to turn up the heat in recent matchups. A non-conference win over Ohio State in Nashville netted them a Quad 1 victory. Next, they torched Georgia Tech in Atlanta. They rode their hot hand to a pair of electric home wins over Miami and rival NC State. Facing the Blue Devils on the road, though, is a different demon altogether.
“We're just going to do what we always do, and that's get ready for the next one,” Odom said after the NC State win. “And we know the challenge that lies ahead there, the number one team in the country, extremely well coached, extremely talented, together, and tough. And so we're going to have to play our best to have a chance to win.”
Duke is the No. 1 team in the nation in KenPom net-rating, and No. 1 in KenPom defensive rating. The Cavaliers, comparatively, come in at No. 14 in net rating and No. 16 in defensive rating. Though, you don’t have to go to advanced metrics to observe the Blue Devils’ dominance – they’ve won thirteen games by at least a 20-point margin. They've scored at least 100 points five times. They sit atop the ACC standings with a sole conference loss. Perhaps most significantly, they poached the shiny No. 1 national ranking from Michigan in their Capitol City Showcase win.
The most important task for the Cavalier defense will be limiting Duke’s freshman forward Cameron Boozer, son of former NBA All-Star Carlos Boozer. Cameron is widely regarded as a top-three lottery pick in the upcoming NBA draft. Cameron’s two-way presence makes him the anchor of the Blue Devil team on both ends — he ranks top five points per game and top 15 in rebounds per game in all of Division I.
Duke backs up their freshman phenom with the sophomore duo of guard Isaiah Evans and center Patrick Ngongba II. Evans fulfills an outside-shooter role for the Blue Devils, attempting seven three-pointers per contest while hitting them at a 35 percent clip. Ngongba II fills the paint with his nigh seven-foot frame.
Cameron’s matchup with Virginia’s fellow star freshman forward Thijs De Ridder will be a keystone of the game. The pair both stand at 6-foot-9, so size advantage is a moot point. Additionally, the Cavaliers have their own seven-foot centers to help in the paint with freshman Johann Grünloh and senior Ugonna Oyenso. The faceoff may come down to who can knock down their outside shots and dig deepest into their post-bag, finding moves the other is unaware of or unprepared to defend.
On the perimeter, the Cavaliers have a salvo of guards to mix and match against the Blue Devils’ group of Evans, junior Caleb Foster, freshman Cayden Boozer and freshman Dame Sarr. The Blue Devils’ lineup touts not just elite talent but also elite size — Cayden is the only player on the Duke roster standing below 6-foot-5. The roster’s size allows Duke to switch off screens at positions one through four, making it difficult for opponents to create extra space or set up mismatches off of screens. Virginia’s own five-man guard rotation has given Odom the ability to pull from various skill sets depending on the game and situation.
Freshman Chance Mallory has often been the firestarter off of the bench, graduate Jacari White has knocked down threes at a team-leading pace of 45 percent and graduate Dallin Hall has become the “glue guy” of the squad. Finding the right combination of size, speed and scoring in the backcourt will be vital to countering Duke’s high-powered rotation.
This matchup is likely the best predictor of how far the Cavaliers can make it in March. Fall flat and get blown out? Outlook isn’t good. Hang around and make Duke sweat? Outlook hazy, check again later. Pull off the upset and make a dash for the ACC regular season title? Without a doubt, expectations will soar.
“We want to play in the NCAA Tournament,” Odom said. “I think that's clear. We want to do that, and we want to get as high a seed as we can. But the focus right now is not anywhere near the NCAA Tournament. It's all into the regular season and the ACC regular season, and then the conference tournament, and then the NCAA Tournament will come after that.”
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