It will only have been 14 days since No. 10 Virginia last faced No. 1 Duke when they meet Saturday, ACC title on the line.
Two weeks. Two weeks since the biggest loss of Coach Ryan Odom’s tenure in Charlottesville, and the Cavaliers (29-4, 15-3 ACC) will again meet the Blue Devils (31-2, 17-1 ACC), this time at the Spectrum Center in Charlotte, N.C. at 8:30 p.m.
The two teams, first and second in the conference, both entered the tournament with double byes before winning games Thursday and Friday. Duke weathered Florida State in the quarterfinals before routing Clemson in the semis, while Virginia defeated NC State for the third time this season in its tournament-opening game before crushing Miami to punch a ticket to Saturday’s game.
Notably, the Blue Devils have been playing without two starters through their two games, and both will be absent against the Cavaliers. Sophomore center Patrick Ngongba II, Duke’s third-leading scorer and second-leading rebounder, will be sidelined with a foot injury. Junior guard Caleb Foster, the Blue Devils’ most senior starter and a savvy offensive operator, will also be absent with a fractured right foot.
With 40 percent of Duke’s starting lineup not dressed, the simplest avenue for Virginia to win the rematch will be to force physicality and get key Blue Devils into foul trouble. In its game against the Tigers (24-10, 12-9 ACC), Duke fielded a seven-man rotation, only two of which — freshman forward Cameron Boozer and senior forward Maliq Brown — have legitimate interior size.
That gameplan in itself will be a challenge for a Cavaliers side that ranks 17th in the ACC in free-throw rate. But for Virginia to cut down the nets Saturday, getting early fouls called on Blue Devils — Cameron Boozer and Brown especially — will open up offensive opportunities both on the perimeter and in the paint.
Though Ngongba II's absence will be felt under the rim, Duke’s rebounding prowess and defensive stopping power will be major challenges for Virginia. In the Feb. 28 matchup that saw the Blue Devils send the Cavaliers home with a 77-51 loss, Duke won the rebounding battle 39-27 with 30 defensive boards. Against Clemson Friday, that margin was 41-27 with 32 defensive rebounds.
Defensively, the Blue Devils are a disciplined and long squad that forces the most turnovers in the ACC. Holding Virginia to 16-55 shooting from the field, Duke suffocated the Cavaliers’ shooting threats, forcing miss after miss and collecting the defensive rebound time and time again.
Brown — one of the Blue Devils’ two bigs Saturday — is the primary rim protector and a masterful defensive playmaker. The newly-crowned ACC Defensive Player and Sixth Man of the Year is a menace defensively who logged three steals against Virginia, but he can be foul prone at times — notching two personal fouls in the first 10 minutes against Clemson.
Still, first on the scouting report will be Cameron Boozer. The ACC rookie and player of the year is one of the most productive players college basketball has ever seen, and a near lock to be a top pick in the 2026 NBA draft. Playing with physicality and finesse below the rim, Cameron Boozer averages nearly 23 points per game and over 10 boards. His brother, freshman guard Cayden Boozer, has moved from the bench to fill Foster’s role and made a big difference — scoring 16 against the Tigers.
In the Feb. 28 loss, Virginia’s shooters — graduate guard Malik Thomas, junior wing Sam Lewis and graduate guard Jacari White — shot a combined 1-21 from the field and 1-16 from three. Duke, with length and size at every position, is primarily responsible for that poor shooting, but against a top opponent some of those tough shots will have to fall.
The mission for the Cavaliers is simple — get the Blue Devils’ front court into some foul trouble quickly, force turnovers, get offensive rebounds and get hot from three. If that all happens, Virginia can avenge the loss from two weeks ago — as well as the loss in the football ACC Championship game, also held in Charlotte.
But all of that is easier said than done. Duke holds only two losses on the season — a one-point defeat at the hands of now-No. 16 Texas Tech and a three-point loss on the road against No. 19 North Carolina. They are big, efficient and intense competitors. They have the best player in the ACC, if not all of college basketball, and strong secondary stars.
In short, even without Ngongba II and Foster, Saturday’s ACC Tournament final is still going to be an uphill battle. Coach Ryan Odom is confident in his squad and their ability to respond to pressure and meet top teams head-on. If they are to cut down the nets, they will need to play confident and clean basketball against the nation’s top team.
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