A Republican takeover of the General Assembly in this fall's elections may put pressure on U.S. Congressman Virgil Goode (D-5th) to switch political parties.
Goode's conservative voting record often has set him against his party's position.
He sparked charges of disloyalty when he voted for impeachment articles against President Clinton and he also has incited speculation among politicians and analysts that he might cross party lines to become a Republican.
The upcoming Assembly elections may give Goode another reason to change parties. The elections could give either party the opportunity to jeopardize his political future by diluting his political base through redistricting.
After a census in 2000, the General Assembly will redraw congressional, state and local districts.
The elections could give either side a majority in the Assembly, which now is shared by both parties.
If Republicans realize a legislative takeover, combined with the executive branch they already control, they will have the power to redraw districts in their favor.
By redrawing the lines in Goode's 5th district, they could weaken his political base by putting constituent counties in another district, said Larry Sabato, professor of government and foreign affairs.
"Geography is destiny in politics," Sabato said.
Such a prospect might persuade Goode to leave the Democratic Party, he said.
"If Virgil Goode becomes a Republican, they will take care of him ... if he becomes a Democrat, they will probably throw him in with" Rep Rick Boucher (D-9th), he said.
Some of Goode's constituent counties could be put into the 9th district, forcing him to run against Boucher for re-election, Sabato said.
Republicans may pressure Goode because he has wavered between the parties for so long, he said.
"The Republicans' patience is limited. They have gotten tired of waiting for Congressman Goode to make up his mind," and might use their leverage to pressure him if they win majority control, he added.
Ed Matricardi, executive director of the Virginia Republican party, said the election may influence Goode either way.
"If Republicans control the General Assembly, I think it would be an incentive for him to go to the Republican Party - or if not, to stay with the Democratic Party," Matricardi said.
But, the state Democratic Party doubts that Goode leaving the Party.
"We think Virgil will stay a Democrat," said Craig Beiber, executive director of the Virginia Democratic Party. "The speculation has been going on now for nine, 10 months, and I have yet to see concrete evidence he's leaving."
Beiber said he did not think redistricting would influence Goode.
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