EVER PONDER the significance of the little tag in the back of your T-shirt, or the label on your new video game? Chances are you own quite a few products with a simple slogan printed on them: Made in Taiwan.
Perhaps they picked Taiwan because it's the shortest of the many name choices for the small island nation; perhaps the retail manufacturers have their own ideas about independence. Any passive-aggressive tendencies demonstrated in labels came out full-force in last week's state elections, however. The Taiwanese people spoke through their votes, and rightfully asked for independence.
They elected for their president Chen Shui-bian, the leader of the Democratic Progressive Party, and a long-time advocate of official independence from the Chinese mainland. To say the least, the Chinese powers-that-be are not happy.
Half of the debate is Taiwan's history -- who is really responsible for the past, and who should be responsible for the future. Many Taiwanese assert that China never has been in control of the tiny island, but the People's Republic still calls Taiwan a "breakaway province" and demands its return to "the motherland."
The history goes something like this: Taiwan's mountain tribes were on their own until Dutch settlers arrived in the seventeenth century and imported Chinese labor. The Dutch eventually left, and the Manchu dynasty claimed the island for a mere eight years in the late 1800s to edge out the encroaching Japanese. Their plan didn't work, and they were forced to cede the island to Japan after the Sino-Japanese War. The nation changed hands again in 1943, when the Allied powers, mired in a war of their own, gave Taiwan to China in the Cairo Declaration.
When the Chinese Civil War erupted in the late 1940s, the Chinese Nationalists, led by Chiang Kai-shek, retreated from Mainland China and established what they considered a satellite government on the tiny island. They've been the ruling power ever since, and have just recently opened their rule to democratic elections.
What the nationalists hadn't been willing to admit before it finally came out in last week's election: Most of the citizens of the island consider themselves Taiwanese -- not Chinese, mainland or otherwise. In addition, they want independence.
It was a gutsy move by the Taiwanese people. Ever since Chen announced his candidacy, the winds on the mainland have been stirring to almost gale force. Threats have been flying across the strait separating the two countries, such as this one from Chinese Premier Zhu Rongji: "Let me give advice to all the people of Taiwan: do not just act on impulse ... you will regret it very much, and it will be too late to repent."
Now the international community must ask itself whether these winds are the start of a hurricane or mere hot air. Those warning of a hurricane-like disaster point to China's pride as a large factor -- the very thing they warned the Taiwanese against still happened. A closer look at the electoral results, however, show that this election wasn't quite as large a slap in the face as alarmists might suggest. Chen was elected by a mere 39 percent of the vote -- only two percentage points more than his closest opponent. In addition, many on the island already consider themselves independent, and may have voted more for Chen's economic policies or because several respected leaders endorsed him. Still, the appearance is that the people openly refuted China's will. During an appearance on NewsHour, Yu Mao Chun, a native of mainland China and a professor at the U.S. Naval Academy, said that "nobody becomes popular until you are officially denounced by China. I think Chen Shui-bian was denounced by China -- his popularity just skyrocketed."
China made similar threats in the first round of presidential elections four years ago, but no international incident occurred -- another fact suggesting that China may not respond forcefully to these results. Time magazine reports that even if there was an armed confrontation, the fight might very well be close. Taiwan has the advantage both in naval strength, considering that China's forces are mostly land-based, and in air support -- China's planes are old Soviet supplies, and Taiwan's forces are U.S. built and protected. Only if China moves to missiles and nuclear weapons would the advantage clearly rest with the mainland, and it's doubtful they would resort to that sort of weaponry for such a small gain against a nation that shows so little threat.
The hardest questions will be in the realm of the international community. Official independence would include recognition from the world -- for example, Chen might request a seat for Taiwan in the United Nations, a place for their dynamic economy in the World Trade Organization. Official diplomatic ties with the United States would be another touchy subject -- right now the U.S. operates under the "One China Policy" negotiated by Nixon in 1972. In order to open up China to American interests, Nixon and Kissinger declared that they would recognize the People's Republic as the official government of China, in essence admitting that Taiwan is not a sovereign country. A present-day show-down between China's bluster and U.S. commitment to self-determination could occur in the near future. Then that little tag could mean a lot more.
(Emily Harding's column appears Fridays in The Cavalier Daily.)
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