Two new polls released Wednesday showed Democrat Mark R. Warner's growing lead over Republican Mark L. Earley in the race for Virginia's governor.
Mason-Dixon Political/Media Research Inc. placed Warner ahead by 6 percentage points, with 48 percent over Earley's 42 percent. Libertarian candidate William Redpath had 1 percent and 9 percent were undecided.
In the last Mason-Dixon poll conducted in October, Warner had a mere 3-percentage-point lead over Earley going into the final month of the campaign season.
According to Larry J. Sabato, government and foreign affairs professor, the increase is superficial and due to errors in the earlier poll, not a genuine shift in public opinion.
"The increase was simply a polling anomaly," he said. "Warner has been consistently ahead."
Roanoke College's Center for Community Research also released a poll Wednesday showing Warner ahead of Earley by 9 percentage points, with 45 percent to Earley's 36 percent.
Redpath had 1 percent, with 18 percent undecided.
A Washington Post survey released Sunday also put Warner ahead of Earley by 10 percentage points in the last few days of the campaign.
Warner has led Earley consistently in every published poll of the Virginia campaign to date, but his advantage often has been within the margin of error, suggesting there is a possibility for a tie.
The effects of Warner's lead on the candidates' campaigns probably will be minimal, said Scott Keeter, government professor at George Mason University, but "Earley's opening up of the abortion issue could be in reaction to the polls ... in an effort to energize Christian conservatives," he said.
Both candidates are "trying to heat up supporters, not necessarily convert the unconverted," he said.
The Roanoke College survey also showed Democrat Timothy M. Kaine in a statistical tie for lieutenant governor with Republican Jay Katzen, 32 percent to 31 percent.
Republican Jerry W. Kilgore led Democrat A. Donald McEachin for attorney general by 11 percentage points, 40 percent to 29 percent.
The Mason-Dixon poll was conducted Monday and Tuesday based on phone interviews with 633 registered voters who said they were likely to cast ballots Nov. 6.
The Roanoke College poll was conducted Oct. 21 through Tuesday.
The college's Center for Community Research questioned 423 registered and likely voters. The margin of error for the polls is 4.8 percent in either direction.
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