When Gov. Mark R. Warner estimated an unexpected shortfall of $1.5 billion in the Virginia budget one month ago, he immediately ordered state universities and other institutions to submit three budget plans accounting for possible funding cuts of 7, 11 and -- in the worst case -- 15 percent.
"That prediction came a month ago," said Del. Mitchell Van Yahres, D-Charlottesville, "and its already obsolete."
In spite of this news, state lawmakers said there would probably not be an increase in taxes.
University alumnus and House Speaker-elect William J. Howell, R-Stafford, agreed that a tax increase, besides being unpopular, is not necessarily the right solution to the problem.
"I'm not sure we need to raise taxes in Virginia," Howell said. "I do know that the picture is pretty grim. When we cut the money last year, we cut the fluff, and now we're getting into the muscle. But it's not going to last forever."
Economists told delegates in a House Appropriations Committee meeting held yesterday morning that even with high-end cuts of 15 percent, the state would still not be able to close the $1.5 billion gap -- a gap that continues to grow.
"We got some more bad news," said Del. Vincent F. Callahan, R-Fairfax and chairman of the appropriations committee. "Even with a 15 percent cutback, we still don't meet the $1.5 billion mark."
These announcements represent another frustrating rise in estimates of how much will be required to pull the state out of its fiscal hole.
"Some agencies in Richmond are talking about 15 percent cuts at least," Van Yahres said. "I've even heard some groans that it's going to be more."
Callahan was equally pessimistic.
"I would say [cut levels] will be on the worst side of the estimate," he said.
The discouraging news follows closely behind Warner's statement last week that there would be no major tax increases to pay down the deficit.
"The governor, last week, ruled out a tax income increase," Warner Spokeswoman Ellen Qualls said.
This places the burden of the deepening fiscal crisis almost entirely on the shoulders of state institutions.
"If Virginians don't like the cuts, then they need to speak out about it," Qualls said. "Right now, what we're hearing is that there is some fat in state government."
Most legislators agreed that cuts would be deep but inevitable because, as Callahan confirmed, "there will be no tax increases."
Nevertheless, many reiterated a commitment to higher education, encouraging college students around the state to stand behind the upcoming bond package, which would provide $900 million in funding for capital projects.
"The problem is big enough that most everybody is going to feel the pinch," said Del. James F. Almand, D-Arlington. "The importance of the bond issue is big for colleges and universities in Virginia."
Qualls agreed that, given current low interest rates, the bond issue is Warner's preferred legislative response to the lack of funding in higher education.
"College communities need to get students registered and get out the vote on the bond package," she said. "It would provide $900 million worth of bricks and mortar and technology improvement that is absolutely essential."
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