Hindsight is 20-20, as the adage goes, but thesedays it looks like the voters in Northern Virginia and Hampton Roads are way overdue for an eyeglass prescription check-up. In both regions, referenda for local traffic improvements were soundly defeated on Election Day. Not only does this prescribe rough roads in the days ahead, the defeat also severely hamstrings Governor Mark R. Warner for the rest of his term, and has serious implications for governance in the Commonwealth. On November 5, voters in the two most heavily populated regions in Virginia sent a message to politicians state-wide that tax increases of any kind, no matter how beneficial the services they might fund, are politically unpalatable in the eyes of the electorate. When cast in this light, the transportation sales tax referenda were the most important issue on the ballot for many Virginians, yet their defeat promises dark times ahead for governing in this Commonwealth. This is a shame.
Governor Mark R. Warner ran a campaign that promised to offer tangible solutions to the intolerable condition of transportation in Hampton Roads and Northern Virginia. His election in 2001 cemented this promise on the agenda of the new administration, and after a great deal of political deal-making and consensus-building, the General Assembly complied. The legislature yielded a bill that the governor then signed, which proposed sales tax increases in the localities of Northern Virginia and Hampton Roads, the revenue from which would then be allocated toward regional transportation infrastructure improvements. The initiative found broad bi-partisan support, and the Democratic governor slowly began to accrue tangible political capital with the Republican-controlled legislature. Things looked bright for the future of Virginia. Warner did things right, but now he's in trouble.
The anti-tax forces rallied quickly following the new legislation, and found an unlikely ally. Anti-development groups mainly in Northern Virginia, and to some extent in Hampton Roads, feared the new transit improvements would add gasoline to the fire of accelerated urban sprawl in the greater-Washington and Norfolk areas. The coalition raised a great deal of money and began a substantial grassroots effort to stop the new sales tax referenda. Motions were filed in court claiming the taxes were unconstitutional because of their limited regional application, but were subsequently thrown out, as they should have been.
To combat this tide of negative publicity, Governor Warner recruited some of his most powerful political allies in the two regions. The Vote Yes campaigns compiled a large war-chest to fight for the referenda and recruited all the right civic personalities to support the initiative. Warner spoke frequently at fundraiser events, and lent the whole of his political capital to the cause. Many fault Warner for not distancing himself further from the politically sensitive issue. However, Warner had no other choice following his campaign promises a year before. As a result, the referenda's losses are equally damaging to the Governor. This is a tradedy.
In a time when state budget fat-trimming has quickly become meat-cutting, Virginia needs a strong, credible captain at the helm. One who can weather the storm brought on by the current economic downturn. Warner was that executive. However, his credibility took a major hit this past Tuesday. This makes him much more sensitive to the populist tendencies of the General Assembly, now favoring their propensity to sponsor legislation that is focused more at placating the public than at making tough decisions in the best interest of the Commonwealth. Warner will find it a much more difficult task when the time comes to find allies in the legislature. This makes governing more difficult and renders effective solutions to the budget crisis much more fleeting, not to mention the economic hit that Northern Virginia and Hampton Roads will sustain because of an eroding transportation network. Virginians in these two regions tied the hands of their government and have wedded this Commonwealth to a future of economic deterioration. How sad.
Not only does this loss erode the public confidence in the Governor, it has major implications for how the Commonwealth will go about responding to the current revenue shortfalls. After record spending by the administration preceding Warner, the state treasury was not only empty, but financing for some projects that had already been approved now had to be rescinded. With the clear mandate from Northern Virginia and Hampton Roads, tax increases in any form will be an impossible pill to force down the throat of the General Assembly. Supporting a tax increase will become a sure way to be ousted from a seat in the General Assembly elections next year. The public has said, "We know you have to raise revenues, just don't increase my taxes." This does not bode well for equitable governing in the future.
While a geographic majority of the state never had the opportunity to weigh in, voters in Hampton Roads and Northern Virginia have tacitly charted a course for the way this Commonwealth is governed for the foreseeable future: Budget shortfalls be damned, taxes are not an option. This is a horrible mindset. The governor tried his best, but has only made his job more difficult. One hesitates to imagine how this year's General Assembly will begin to solve Virginia's host of problems with the financial hands of the Commonwealth tied behind its back. Best of luck to them.
Preston Lloyd's column appears Thursdays in the Cavalier Daily. He can be reached at plloyd@cavalierdaily.com.
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