The Virginia men's basketball team will be lucky to finish seventh in the ACC next year.
That's right, seventh. Talent-wise, the team might not be any worse than this season's. They could possibly be better. But the rest of the ACC gets so much better that it's scary.
The Cavaliers lose three seniors, the most painful being three-time second-team All-ACC forward Travis Watson, but have commitments from four high school standouts.
Shooting guard Gary Forbes is the jewel of the class and could start as a true freshman. At 6-foot-5, he has the ability to score from anywhere on the court and a marked size advantage over most two-guards. Shooting guard J.R. Reynolds, a very streaky shooter who hit 14 three-pointers in a game this season, also is set to become a Cavalier.
In the last month, Virginia coach Pete Gillen has added two more. Shortly after Keith Jenifer asked for his release, Gillen had a commitment from Florida point guard T.J. Bannister, a short but quick ballhandler. Last week, he added 6-foot-8 power forward Donte Minter and is looking for a fifth body.
Despite these fresh faces, Virginia will have the same old problems. Without Watson, rebounding will be a main concern. Sophomore Elton Brown needs to get in shape so he can play more minutes, but he also has not shown the consistency needed on the boards. The top returning glass cleaner is junior center Nick Vander Laan, one of the nicest guys in Division I basketball.
But there are so, so many questions. Can junior guard Majestic Mapp regain his quickness? Can sophomore Jason Clark finally assert himself? Can Virginia get by with junior guard Todd Billet and Bannister in the backcourt, with neither topping six feet? Can sophomore Devin Smith get in shape to play both ends of the floor? Will freshman Derrick Byars regain his confidence and be the player he is capable of being?
Here's what I think Gillen needs to do: First, all five starting jobs need to be open in the fall and the freshmen need to see time. The five best players will be Billet, Byars, Smith, Forbes and Brown. Start them.
Second, Gillen needs to follow the age-old maxim: "Dance with the one that bring ya." Gillen's early teams were scrappy, small and pressed. I would love to see Gillen go small at times, with a lineup of Bannister, Forbes, Byars, Smith and Clark. Smith and Byars can man the forward positions and can flourish alongside one another. Very few teams have more than one big man that Smith or Byars couldn't guard, and this Cavalier team could press. Virginia will have as many as eight wingmen, which creates a logjam for playing time unless Gillen goes small.
This team has the talent, without a doubt, to compete. They beat Kentucky with only eight points from Watson and Wake Forest with only 11. The problem is finding the consistency to compete.
Oh yeah, and the rest of the ACC.
Duke, while losing Dahntay Jones, will have an even smarter and quicker J.J. Redick to go with a bigger Shelden Williams. Plus, the Devils add two McDonald All-American forwards.
UNC did not have an upperclassman in its regular rotation, so experience and time in the weight room will help the Heels. With a healthy Sean May, UNC is a team to be reckoned with, adding more athleticism in wing Reyshaun Terry.
Wake Forest only loses Josh Howard but brings in All-American point guard Chris Paul. With Paul and current freshman sensation Justin Gray outside, the Deacons will be quick and make teams work with a tenacious press. The backcourt is small, but the frontcourt looms large. If Chewbaca-look-alike Eric Williams can learn to stay out of trouble, the Deacons have an unmatched inside-outside combination.
Georgia Tech does not lose one player from this year's team, which is making an NIT run after finishing fifth in the ACC. If ACC Rookie of the Year Bosh, who is projected to go as high as fifth in mock drafts, stays in school, this will be a very dangerous team. The Jackets dropped a number of close games this year, a product of inexperience.
Maryland loses four starters for the second year in a row, but the Terps might not fall off. Gary Williams has brought in a top-10 recruiting class and has a star-in-the-making in point guard John Gilchrist.
N.C. State loses only Clifford Crawford, and the Wolfpack big men create defensive problems with their ability to shoot the three. At Florida State, coach Leonard Hamilton brought in ESPN.com's number two shooting guard, Vakeaton Wafer. Paired with junior Tim Pickett and former McDonald's All-American Anthony Richardson, the 'Noles could wreck some havoc with their tenacious defense.
Every team other than Clemson will be very competitive in the ACC, with five teams likely being in the top-25. For Virginia, it could be another long winter counting down to spring football practice next year. But with this team, who knows?
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