Has anybody else's NIT bracket just gone to pieces? Who could have seen the Austin Peay win over Belmont coming? (Austin Peay, by the way, has the best chant in all of college hoops: "Let's Go Peay!")
With the Cavaliers unable to get past the semi-sweet 16 of the NIT, Wahoo fans can now direct 100 percent of their basketball attention to the NCAA Tournament. Like many of you, I spent my entire weekend glued to the television and watched a first round devoid of upsets turn into a second round filled with surprises.
The state of Alabama has as many teams still alive as basketball's holy land of North Carolina. For the first time since the tournament expanded to 64 teams two decades ago, two number one seeds failed to make it past the first weekend. And the only team from Conference USA (which received six total invites) still marching on is America's new darling: the UAB Blazers and their point guard Carldell "Squeaky" Johnson.
Despite the evident parody of a tournament that has as many nine and 10 seeds remaining as one seeds, this year's tournament has reaffirmed the importance of three factors when it comes to succeeding in the Big Dance: the primacy of guard play, the necessity for star power and the reward of being battle-tested.
If there is one common denominator when it comes to the 16 remaining teams, it is that they have had superior guard play. Ranging from player of the year Jameer Nelson of St. Joe's to ACC freshman of the year Chris Paul of the Demon Deacons (these two face off Thursday, by the way), the performance by a team's point guard goes a long way toward determining how shiny their moment can be. Guards control the flow and pace of the game and are responsible for setting up the offense without turning the ball over and giving the other team free baskets.
When sizing up the remaining match-ups, the first place to look is the backcourt. Whether its Chalmers and Sato of Xavier, McNamara of Syracuse, Jack of Georgia Tech or Lucas of Oklahoma State, whoever wins the battle of the backcourts will most likely survive and advance. With this in mind, 'Hoos should be excited about the possible triumvirate of J.R. Reynolds, T.J. Bannister and Sean Singletary next year.
The only possible exception to the great guard play requirement is the Commodores. Although they have gotten good guard play, Vanderbilt has made it to the second weekend thanks in large part to the second requirement for a deep tournament run: star power. Commodore forward Matt Frieje, who hung 31 points on N.C. State this weekend, is carrying his team. The same can be said for Kirk Snyder of Nevada, Okafor of Connecticut and Simien of Kansas. Everyone remembers what one man can do for a team making a tournament run (see: Carmello Anthony). When you need to have a basket, there has to be a go-to guy who can create his own shot and handle the pressure of a game-deciding moment. Overall No. 1 seed Kentucky had no star player who could take over a game single-handedly and when it came to making a big shot at the end of the game against UAB, no such dominant force was to be found.
The final prerequisite for ultimate tournament success, as shown again this year, is the importance of facing challenging competition before starting the post-season. While Alabama had the nation's toughest rated schedule, Stanford's did not even crack the top 100. While Stanford and Gonzaga reminded me of UNLV from 13 years ago (where an undefeated Runnin' Rebels squad did not face a challenge until the Final Four where they collapsed in the final minutes against Duke), battle-tested teams from the ACC and Big East, such as Connecticut and Duke, will be unfazed by a close, pressure-packed game.
With that said, here's hoping this time next week we're talking about a UAB-Xavier-Vanderbilt-Wake Forest Final Four.
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