ONE of the hot-button issues on campuses across America this election year was whether or not the military draft would be re-instated. Pointing to the ongoing war on terror and the problems in Iraq, those saying the draft was going to be re-instated would argue that the United States could no longer carry out the military operations it wished to without the draft.
While the worries were real, the perceived threat was not. No crisis in the Middle East today or relating to the war on terror could realistically force the U.S. government to re-instate the draft. There is, however, one situation that does have the potential to practically force this country to re-instate the draft. It is in East Asia, home to a potential disaster still holding over from the Cold War.
The situation, which seems to have slipped under the radar, is the situation between China and Taiwan. Today China, Taiwan and the United States all play a dangerous game of words, threats and ambiguous statements over the situation, with very little of the end game being made clear.
Last Friday, Dr. Harry Tseng, a U.Va. graduate and deputy director of the political office of the Taiwan Economic and Cultural Representative Office (Taiwan's de facto embassy to the United States), came to speak at the University. His speech focused on current American policies toward Taiwan, as well as some of Taiwan's own policy goals.
The fact made clear from Tseng's presentation is that the situation between China and Taiwan today is probably the most dangerous it has been since the 1950s, if not ever. Since 2000, Taiwan's democratic government has been run by a center-left party with a platform of creating a separate Taiwanese identity, and often indicates some pro-independence leanings, even at times supporting the idea of a referendum on independence. The communist government of China, however, has always held the policy that Taiwan is part of China, and that the Chinese government is its legitimate ruler. Furthermore, China has constantly threatened to attack Taiwan the moment it moves towards independence.
This situation creates a major problem for the United States because of the Taiwan Relations Act. Under the law, passed in the 1980s, but the United States not only annually sells defensive weapons to Taiwan, the United States is also obligated to defend Taiwan if it is attacked. While the United States fundamentally supports the proposition that Taiwan is a part of China, it also faces the reality that Taiwan is a democracy while China is not, and the United States has a moral obligation to defend fellow democracies.
So, as the situation stands, Taiwan seems set to begin movements toward independence, China seems prepared to attack Taiwan the moment it does so and the United States, sitting on the sidelines, awaits the possibility of a war with China. Such a war would require a military draft, force the country to put the war on terror on hold, risk nuclear war and even World War III. Yet despite all of this, the American government continues to tiptoe around the situation. It must cease this approach immediately.
In the course of his presentation, Tseng quoted Bill Clinton, who, when discussing the situation, stated, "The difference between Taiwan and the Middle East is that with the Middle East, if we do nothing, the situation gets worse. With Taiwan, if we do nothing, the situation gets better." But seeing how much more dangerous the situation is today than it has been before, this approach has clearly failed.
The United States must begin to take an active role in resolving the crisis. We first must drop the so-called One China policy to show our willingness to support whatever is peaceably worked out between the Taiwanese and Chinese themselves. We then must begin to play a central role in mediating the dispute and letting it resolve peacefully. This means dropping our ambiguities and making clear to China our intent to defend Taiwan if it is attacked. Moreover, America should insist that China drop its demand that the Taipei government must recognize the Beijing government as the legitimate government of all of China, including Taiwan. On the other side, we must make clear to Taiwan that we will no longer sell weapons to them if they continue to intentionally provoke China and demand that the Taiwanese approach negotiations open to all possible solutions, including reunification in a manner similar to the formerly British-held Hong Kong and Portuguese-held Macao, recognizing the Beijing government as legitimate, while still maintaining its own form of local rule.
The situation between Taiwan and China keeps getting more and more dangerous. The United States can no longer afford to remain uninvolved in the situation, and must immediately begin work to resolve the crisis. If the United States refuses to act, it may begin to propel this world to a disaster that almost no one is ready to face.
Sam Leven's column appears Tuesdays in The Cavalier Daily. He can be reached at sleven@cavalierdaily.com.
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