A study released recently by the University's Weldon Cooper Center for Public Service projects increases in both the Commonwealth's population and public school enrollment through 2010.
The study indicates that the greatest population growth will occur in counties neighboring Washington, D.C., such as Loudoun, Prince William and Fairfax counties, each of which have gained over 50,000 residents in the past five years.
In terms of population, the Commonwealth ranks 12th among U.S. states. It has shown the seventh-greatest growth in population, however, since the 2000 census. The overall state population has risen by seven percent in the past six years, resulting in a state population of 7.5 million as of July 2005. Of the 11 metropolitan areas in the state, only the Danville region showed a population decrease, of 1.8 percent. The Commonwealth's more rural areas are seeing an increase in residents as well.
"Migration is a big factor that can affect these projections of both population and enrollment," said Qian Cai, the Weldon Cooper Center's director of demographics and workforce. "While a large part of this [migration] comes from within the state, that is, movement from metropolitan areas to less-populated areas, a large portion are moving in from other Southern Atlantic states, such as Maryland, Florida, North Carolina, etc."
As a result of this influx, public school enrollment is projected to increase by 30,000 students, bringing total enrollment to approximately 1.22 million by 2010.
Although an overall increase in enrollment is projected, only 40 percent of individual school districts in the Commonwealth will see any sort of increase. Regardless, the state will require approximately $275 million more in public funding to accommodate these new students.
The Loudoun County Public School system faces the largest growth, with a projected gain of over 21,000 students over the next four to five years.
LCPS spokesman Wayde Byard said 38 new schools have been built in Loudoun County over the last decade, with another 19 planned for construction by 2011.
"We are as prepared as you can be in such a volatile market," Byard said. "Are we going to be able to build enough schools with enough qualified teachers to accommodate this? That's up to the taxpayers and the board of supervisors."
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