Things could be looking up for the Democrats in this year's midterm elections--at least this is what Politics Prof. Larry Sabato predicted during the annual "Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball" events presented by the Center for Politics yesterday afternoon in the Newcomb Hall Theater.
Sabato presented predictions for this year's midterm race along with insight on the upcoming 2008 presidential election. He also made predictions for the gubernatorial, senatorial and representative races, saying that this year the elections are not only highly competitive but that it is "possible that no single Democratic house member, governor or senator will lose."
More specifically, he predicted that the Democrats will gain six governorships going from 22 governor seats to 28 and the Republicans will go from 55 seats in the Senate to 51. The Democrats are likely to pick up 27 seats in the House, shifting control of that body, according to information presented by the Center for Politics.
Sabato said with respect to the senatorial races, there are three key states to watch on Tuesday: Tennessee, Missouri and Virginia. He said the Virginia senatorial race was "an enormous surprise" because in January he did not believe it would be this close.
Sabato added that if Webb wins this year it will not be because of his campaign.
"Webb will win because Allen will lose; it will be a rejection of Allen that will win Webb the election," he said.
As for the 2008 presidential election, Sabato said he "can't even think about '08. I can only think of '06."
During the question-and-answer period Sabato also answered a few questions about the upcoming election. He said he predicts that "the Republicans can take the presidency in '08 if the Democrats take the House" this election.
The method to formulating these predictions is like "the Bush's Baked Beans recipe; it is very confidential," Sabato said. Even so, some students say they agree with the claims he makes and support his positions.
Fourth-year College student Logan Riddick said he attended yesterday's event as well as Sabato's 2004 Presidential Election Crystal Ball Event. Riddick said one of the most interesting comments that Sabato made among yesterday's predictions was the "comment on finding candidates in the center, more moderate candidates." He also said Sabato "gave good insight into the consequences of 2008."
First-year College student Caitlin Burchfield, also in attendance, said she agreed with "the idea of the blue wave coming; it goes along with the political trends."
Burchfield added that she was surprised to hear Sabato make such a strong case for the Democrats taking so many spots this election.
"I agreed that this would happen, but I didn't think it was this big of a sweep," she said.
For Sabato, the most surprising prediction in the Crystal Ball was the fact that this year's midterm election was so competitive and that the Democrats were now so hopeful.
"In January they were hopeful, but not this hopeful," he said.
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