Optimism abounded for Coach Chris Pollard’s first season at the helm of Virginia baseball, a program losing its College World Series-winning coach but gaining an influx of proven talent through the transfer portal. Though question marks remained, the potential was unmistakable.
Now, with just one regular-season series remaining in the season, the Cavaliers (34-18, 13-14 ACC) have undoubtedly fallen flat. After dropping yet another conference series to California to close out their final series at home, Virginia appears in danger of missing out on an NCAA regional bid for the second straight season.
As the Cavaliers’ season reaches its conclusion, three beat writers break down the good, the bad and the ugly ahead of a critical road trip versus Louisville.
Where can Virginia find some pitching or lineup stability?
Xander Tilock, Senior Writer: It’s simple — the Cavaliers need their superstar shortstop back from a hand injury. Junior infielder Eric Becker is a premier player, and he has been sorely missed since his last appearance April 16. Freshman infielder RJ Holmes has stood in admirably at the plate but Becker is difficult to replace.
Becker is still tied for fourth on Virginia’s extra base hits leaderboard, even though the rest of the top five hitters have all played at least nine more games. Becker also ranks fourth among starters with his .556 slugging percentage. Also important is the fact that Becker is a table setter. He usually slots in as the leadoff hitter, getting on base to create RBI opportunities for power sluggers in junior outfielder AJ Gracia and junior utilityman Sam Harris. The Cavaliers need Becker.
Joe Schwiesow, Staff Writer: While it is clear that Virginia needs big swings out of their headliners, picking up production from the largely dormant bat of junior third baseman Noah Murray could dial up the run production from the bottom of the order.
Murray has proved he can swing it at a high level — last year at Duke, he posted an on-base plus slugging of 1.132 in 50 plate appearances. This year, however, he is hitting to the tune of the worst batting average, on-base percentage and slugging percentage of any consistent Cavalier starter. If there is any time for Murray to find his groove, it is now.
David Sewall, Staff Writer: It is no secret that pitching wins playoff games. If the Cavaliers hope to advance in the ACC Tournament and go on a postseason run, that hope will hinge on their starting rotation.
No starter has emerged as a true ace. Junior Kyle Johnson got a slow start on the mound due to injury, and has struggled since building up, sporting a 5.59 ERA with 15 walks in just 29 innings. Sophomore Henry Zatkowski has been Virginia’s best and most consistent arm, while freshman John Paone has emerged as the third weekend arm, tossing 7.2 strong innings against California this past weekend. The Cavaliers cannot afford to simply hope their rotation holds up — they need their starters to become a strength.
What is Virginia’s ceiling in the postseason?
XT: I’m changing my answer after the recent California series. At this current juncture, the Cavaliers seem destined for a regional exit. This squad has not faced a ranked opponent in over a month — Virginia is just 5-4 in ranked games this year — but has sustained far too many unranked losses.
The Cavaliers’ troubling losses and sub-.500 ACC record do not inspire postseason hope. This is not a team that can be trusted to beat a feisty mid-major and also an SEC host like Texas or Mississippi State in the regional round. Virginia certainly has the talent to make a College World Series run, but this team is going to have to prove themselves — quickly. A series loss at Louisville could be the fate-sealing dagger in a season that once appeared magical.
JS: I am rather bearish on the Cavaliers’ playoff aspirations. A streaky team like Virginia is liable to make a noisy run, but just as liable to have the wheels fall off at the most inopportune times. When I look for threatening playoff teams at any level, I look for a dependable and effective starting pitching rotation. I am unwilling to give that title to a Cavalier rotation lacking an individual ERA south of 4.00.
With all that being said, look for Virginia to heat up in the ACC Tournament. If the Cavaliers can do that, they can ride that momentum to a regional victory. Though, I predict their hot hand would run out in the super regional should they reach it.
DS: Charlottesville sits roughly 1186 miles from Omaha, Neb., a number that Virginia players have worn across their hats at times as both motivation and reminder. This year, though, those miles seem to feel further and further. With losses continuing to pile up, a return to the College World Series does not appear to be in the cards for the Cavaliers.
Virginia has lacked a clear identity down the stretch, losing four of its last six series. Between pitching, defense and offense, there always seems to be one phase of the game that falters, and those lapses have cost the Cavaliers several wins — along with a real chance at a regional. I would love nothing more than to look back on this blurb in a few weeks and laugh at my own pessimism, but right now, it is hard to attach much hope to a team still searching for consistency.
What end-of-season award would you give to one Cavalier?
XT: I’m awarding the most underrated individual to pitching coach Brady Kirkpatrick. An increasingly dwindling postseason ceiling muddles the fact that Kirkpatrick likely has the Cavaliers set up for long term success. Even after a handful of major blowups this season, Virginia still ranks inside the top half of the ACC’s pitching. Also consider the fact that many talented hurlers exited through the portal last offseason. Kirkpatrick did not enter the season with a slew of veterans to rely upon.
Forget 2026 — the next few seasons look incredibly promising. Among Virginia’s 23 pitchers, at least 18 of them have eligibility after this season, including all of the current starting pitchers. There is reason to believe the Cavalier arms could have a stellar 2027 campaign under Kirkpatrick’s tutelage. Just imagine freshman pitcher Noah Yoder once he builds up his stamina and command, or further development for a freshman weekend starter in Paone. 2027 could be a special season in Charlottesville.
JS: Graduate reliever Lucas Hartman earns my nod for team Cy Young award. When looking at the MLB Cy Young Award, it has long been reserved for the preeminent starting pitching talent in the league. Not since 2003 has a relief pitcher brought home the coveted award — an incredibly dominant season from steroid-fueled Dodgers closer Éric Gagné broke the mold.
Hartman similarly leads the Cavalier pitching staff not from the starting role, but from the bullpen. Second on the team in innings pitched without starting a game, a 3.26 ERA and a second team Midseason All-American honor to his name, Hartman has been as dependable as they come. True to the old adage, his best ability has been availability. Pitching in nearly 60 percent of Virginia’s games this year, Hartman’s earned his rubber arm status.
DS: Amid a season brimming with ups and downs, one stabilizing force has emerged in the Cavalier lineup. In his first season at Virginia, superstar outfielder Gracia has been as advertised and then some, making him the clear-cut choice for MVP. Gracia has anchored this lineup all season, slashing .324/.459/.615 while leading the team in OPS and runs. He also walks more than he strikes out and is tied for first on the team in home runs — he is the engine of a sometimes sputtering offense.
His value became even clearer during the four games he missed with a concussion in April, when the Cavaliers went 2-2 while simultaneously dealing with the absence of Becker. Simply put, Virginia’s offense looks a lot different with Gracia at the top of the order. His combination of power, patience and consistency have made him the Cavaliers’ most reliable offensive weapon and an easy MVP choice.
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