Republicans rejoiced in 1993 when they were able to take the Virginia governor's seat as well as the New Jersey governor's and New York City mayoral seats from the Democratic Party's hands. In 1997, Republicans kept their hands on all three positions, but Election 2001 may be the Democrats' chance for payback.
In Virginia, a state that usually leans to the right, recent polls show Democratic gubernatorial Mark Warner leading, causing Republican leaders to worry. Democrats also are favored to win in New Jersey and New York City.
Although some polls show the gap between the two candidates narrowing, Republican gubernatorial candidate Mark Earley, attorney general of Virginia until he stepped down to focus on the race, faces an uphill battle to win this year.
Larry J. Sabato, professor of government and foreign affairs, said Warner has been able to run a more competitive race because he is well funded and has positioned himself in the ideological center.
During the summer, Warner shocked many by courting the endorsement of the National Rifle Association, an organization that opposes gun control. Such a move cemented the notion that Warner was running as a more moderate Democrat.
Earley has tried attacking Warner's personal wealth and his lack of elective experience. He also called the state Democratic candidates the most liberal in Virginia history.
In one ad, the Earley campaign tried to portray the ticket as very liberal for supporting gay civil unions. Earley said he was for "Virginia values" not "Vermont values," referring to Vermont's approval of gay civil unions.
The controversy arose when Democratic lieutenant governor candidate Tim Kaine expressed support for civil unions, but Warner said he would not support them.
Currently, Earley has tried to center the governor's race around the issue of a Northern Virginia referendum to raise the sales tax by a 1/2 cent to pay for regional transportation improvements. Earley said he is against the referendum because it would be harmful in the current economic downturn.
But Warner said he supports the opportunity for a referendum because he wants Northern Virginia voters to have a choice.
The two candidates, whose first televised debate was one week ago, were scheduled to debate Sunday, but that debate was postponed because of American military action that began that day in Afghanistan. The debate's organizers, the University's Center for Governmental Studies, have rescheduled the debate for tonight at 8.
Sabato predicts the final month of campaigning will be very competitive and the gap between Warner and Earley may narrow.
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