THE 2009 election stands a decent at once again turning Virginia red. As we wind closer to November’s gubernatorial election, the advantages of the Republican position become more apparent. Even though Virginia currently has two Democratic Senators, six Democratic Representatives, and voted for President Obama as the presidential candidate last year, the Republican party maintains control over the state legislature and stands a fair shot at seizing the office of governor in 2009. While the focus of the Democratic party has been divided among three potential candidates, the Republicans have already united behind Bob McDonnell and created a clear vision of their goals for Virginia’s future.
The Democratic primary is not scheduled to take place until June 9, 2009. With former state Delegate Brian Moran, state Sen. Creigh Deeds, and former Democratic National Committee head McAuliffe all leading fairly entrenched campaigns with close poll numbers, the Democratic party will not secure a definite candidate until the primary is over. This allows, from the present, two extra months for Republican candidate McDonnell to run a general election campaign, appealing to all voters of Virginia on both sides of the aisle. He is able to craft his message and reach out to all Virginia voters between now and the primary, while Democratic hopefuls must appeal primarily to strong party supporters. Even moderate Democrats are unlikely to vote in the mid-summer primary, so Moran, Deeds, and McAuliffe must appeal to more liberal Democrats in hopes of gaining the party’s nomination. This gives McDonnell the clear advantage: he can begin to market a more centrist, unifying agenda now, appealing to both Republicans and moderates. Democratic candidates all have different agendas and plans for the economy. After the primary, it will likely be difficult to unite the party behind one clear message, as Democrats so successfully did in 2008.
It is clear even early on that the Democratic primary will cause a significant divide in the opinions of party enthusiasts. The most controversial candidate is arguably McAuliffe, former leader of the national Democratic Party, who has a strong national following. After raising more than $4.2 million in the first three months of 2009 and maintaining a staff of nearly 100 paid positions — unprecedented in state history — McAuliffe has actually fallen behind in the polls. He has lost a narrow lead in the polls to Moran, even with the highest spending this early in the campaign in Virginia history. McAuliffe even has a negative favorability among young voters. Despite the opinions of the polls, in my opinion, McAuliffe has the best chance at securing the Democratic primary because of his wide favorability with party enthusiasts, most of whom are likely to turn out on election day. Should McAuliffe win the primary, however, the job of the Republicans in securing the governor’s mansion will become even easier.
McAuliffe is clearly a Democratic candidate with a primarily liberal agenda. Whereas Sen. Mark Warner and Gov. Tim Kaine won the office of governor because of their moderate economic and social policies, the Democratic candidates in 2009 are considerably more mainstream and will be significantly less likely obtain bipartisan support. The actions of Obama and the Democratic Congress are only fueling discontent among Republican voters, with a huge government budget and hundreds of billions of dollars in stimulus spending. Democratic promises for bipartisan action during the election have been overlooked in the first few months of Obama’s presidency, and Republicans could see large amounts of voters come out in November in support of McDonnell if they can take advantage of this widespread frustration among the party out of power.
In order for the Democrats to have a fighting chance at retaining the governor’s position in 2009, several key things need to happen in the party. One of the candidates will probably need to drop out of the race in the coming weeks. As the system currently stands, most Virginia voters are not even aware of who the Democratic candidates for governor are. If the ultimate candidate cannot even receive a majority of the Democratic vote — which he inevitably would not in a three-way race — he will probably fail to capture the attention of the wider party in the general election. In addition, the Democrats will have a lot of catching up to do following the primary, with the presumptive candidate needing to initiate a grassroots campaign, similar to Obama’s 2008 presidential bid. The Democrats could maintain control of the governorship in Virginia, but are clearly behind the Republican candidate as the playing field currently stands.
Anthony Nobles’ column appears Fridays in The Cavalier Daily. He can be reached at a.nobles@cavalierdaily.com.
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