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Mediocre prediction

Anyone and everyone associated with the University and mildly interested in sports wants to know how the U.Va. football team is going to be at the beginning of every season.\nNever, though, is that more true than this year, when there is so much that is new and so much to lose. There are five new assistants - six if you count Virginia coach Al Groh as the official defensive coordinator. (He was the de facto coordinator in previous years, but now it's official.) Groh's job is absolutely on the line. This season is as unpredictable as Virginia men's basketball coach Tony Bennett is handsome. Or so I have been told ...\nBut, I have the answer. There's no need to go to games this year once you've read this. Virginia will go 3-9.\nOr 9-3. Or somewhere in between.\nI know. I know what you're thinking. Take it easy! Don't count your chickens before they hatch! I'll tell you what: If I'm wrong, then at the end of the school year, fire me. Or I'll just graduate on time.\nWhen looking at the schedule though, I am convinced that my bravery is warranted. That being said, I'll make a more specific prediction that you absolutely shouldn't hold me to: 6-6. Exactly between 3-9 and 9-3. Here is, game by game, how the season will - probably not - break down.\nGame 1: vs. William & Mary\nVirginia really could lose this game. No, seriously. The Cavs easily could have lost to fellow FCS opponent Richmond last season, and William & Mary took that same Spiders team to overtime. And that was before Virginia's starting quarterback got kicked off the team. And that wasn't during a season-opener when Virginia is testing out a new offense.\nBut, like last year against Richmond, I think Groh's defense will keep the Tribe out of the end zone enough to keep Virginia's head above water. Cavs win, but it's not an easy one. Prediction: Virginia 13, William & Mary 6.\nGame 2: vs. TCU\nThe Horned Frogs not only have the coolest mascot on the schedule, but they also are the best team from outside of the conference. They are No. 17 in the country preseason and they have three running threats - two tailbacks and a quarterback. Running attacks with two prongs or more killed U.Va. early last year what with an inexperienced D-Line - see games against UConn, Duke, even Georgia Tech if it hadn't turned the ball over. TCU will have the same effect against inexperienced linebackers. Second game of the season, first real test; Virginia flunks. Prediction: TCU 28, Virginia 10.\nGame 3: @ Southern Mississippi\nThink Virginia will roll over the Golden Eagles? If anything, it will be the other way around. Southern Miss has a legitimate shot to win the Conference USA, which also includes East Carolina and Tulsa. It also runs its own version of the spread, so a defense that sees that every day in practice won't be taken off guard by U.Va.'s spread look. Combine that with the home field, and Southern Miss wins a close one. Prediction: Southern Miss 13, Virginia 10.\nGame 4: @ North Carolina\nUNC is one of the few legit teams in the ACC, and it has the home field. Plus, the Heels are peeved that Virginia stole a win last year in overtime. Tar Heels win, and it's not a steal. Prediction: UNC 30, Virginia 14.\nGame 5: vs. Indiana\nIt's one of the alleged worst teams in the ACC against the alleged worst team in the Big Ten - what a dream matchup! Originally, I had planned to make this game an upset-special. But then I realized it's only because I love the movie, "Hoosiers."\nThese Hoosiers have a reputation for struggling with spread offenses and with massive offensive linemen - Virginia has both. Plus, if the Cavs get to six games as I predict they will, then they have to win this one. At home, and at 1-3 with their backs against the wall, they will do so convincingly. Prediction: Virginia 31, Indiana 7.\nGame 6: @ Maryland\nThis one's tough. Two teams with question marks. A coach who's job is on the line vs. a coach who just lost 100-plus pounds since last season. Though I'm not sure if that's relevant ... just thought I'd throw that in there.\nI'll go with Virginia, only because of karma. The Cavs' win at Maryland in 2007 was probably their biggest win of the season. Jameel Sewell is back, and maybe Mikell Simpson's memories of his breakout performance during that game will get him going once again. On an eerily similar last-minute drive to the '07 game, Virginia wins a huge contest on the road. Prediction: Virginia 20, Maryland 17.\nGame 7: vs. Georgia Tech\nYou want to talk about a home game Virginia is going to lose, this one's it. This is the second year in coach Paul Johnson's triple-option offense for quarterback Josh Nesbitt and the rest of the Yellow Jackets. They are the highest-ranked team on the schedule other than Virginia Tech. Virginia is just coming off an emotionally exhausting win. GT is ticked about last year. Prediction: Georgia Tech 34, Virginia 14.\nGame 8: vs. Duke\nHere's where I go out on a limb. This one's a loss.\nYes, I know: It's Duke. But it's not the same Duke. Coach David Cutcliffe is turning this program around. Thaddeus Lewis is an All-ACC caliber quarterback. The Blue Devils could very well come into this game still winless in the ACC, so they'll be motivated and they have the confidence to beat the Cavs after stomping them by almost 30 points last year. And, I just have a feeling that this is a game during which Virginia could lay an egg. Prediction: Duke 20, Virginia 14.\nGame 9: @ Miami\nThe Cavs are the underdog in this one but they will pull it out. Just like last season, a loss to Duke gets Virginia going. Miami's secondary is extremely aggressive, so they will bite on Virginia's option fakes and screens, which will be seasoned by this point in the year. The Cavs closed out the Orange Bowl with a 48-point triumph in 2007 - their first game in Land Shark Stadium won't be quite so one-sided, but the result will be the same. Prediction: Virginia 30, Miami 20.\nGame 10: vs. Boston College\nNew Eagles coach Frank Spaziani is my favorite coach in the ACC but he's got a lot on his plate. He does not have a quarterback who has thrown a pass in college. The Eagles best defensive player - 2008 ACC Defensive Player of the Year Mark Herzlich - was diagnosed with a rare form of cancer. The Eagles put up a fight, but in the end, the Cavs soar. Prediction: Virginia 24, Boston College 10.\nGame 11: @ Clemson\nVirginia is 5-5 and must beat Clemson to avoid the daunting task of beating Virginia Tech to become bowl-eligible. Hmmm. Sound familiar?\nVirginia faced the same scenario last season, and the Cavs' offense had one of its more frustrating performances of the year, turning the ball over four times en route to a 13-3 loss. This year - on the road, against a better Clemson team, mind you - Virginia pulls it out. Fueled by the desire to keep Groh's job and to stay eligible for a bowl unlike last season, this one isn't based on Xs and Os, just a gut feeling. Prediction: Virginia 14, Clemson 13.\nGame 12: vs. Virginia Tech\n"If we can just beat Virginia Tech, I'll be happy."\nI'm sick of hearing this around Grounds. I hate those shirts at the University Bookstore that say, "Beat Tech." Beating the Hokies would be nice, but Wahoos should want a good team, period.\nAfter this game, if you bought one of those shirts, you better put it back in the dresser until next season. This Hokie team is ranked No. 7 in the AP poll for good reason. It is just too doggone good and it will have too much on the line. Prediction: Virginia Tech 31, Virginia 10.\nSo the Cavs go 6-6. Do they make a bowl? Maybe they do, maybe they don't. Does Groh keep his job? Maybe he does, maybe he doesn't.\nI don't have the answers. All I know is, Tony Bennett has a really nice smile. Or so I have been told ...

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