Because of the extent of the damage caused by Hurricane Sandy, there have been concerns among many about the implications of the hurricane on the general election. States like New York, New Jersey and Connecticut have been devastated and are still trying to obtain some form of normalcy, which may not happen within a short period of time. Many of the polling sites have been flooded or destroyed, and still do not have power. In New York, many of the voting locations have changed to accommodate for the disaster. In addition, there were problems with the Internet servers in many counties making it difficult to inform the public about location changes. Such scenarios will certainly decrease the number of people voting.
Other individuals are probably more concerned with ensuring the welfare of their families, especially people who have lost their homes or still do not have power. For them, voting is not going to be their primary concern, and so, chances are, they may not vote. Many people are living in temporary shelters at local schools.
Because of the transportation and general communication disruption caused by the hurricane, there has also been some problem with delivering mail efficiently and effectively. As a result, absentee ballots may not arrive at the appropriate location within the appropriate amount of time. This may cause difficulties in determining an accurate count of absentee ballots.
In terms of the presidency, there most likely will not be any significant change in the outcome than what was predicted prior to the occurrence of Hurricane Sandy. States that have suffered the most damage such as New York and New Jersey have been predominately Democratic, and those electoral votes will still be President Obama’s regardless of voter turnout.
Yet, it must be noted, that the hurricane has impacted the image of both candidates. The hurricane may have benefited President Obama. The response to the hurricane has been relatively quick, especially in comparison to Hurricane Katrina. In addition, Republican New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie has publicly complimented President Obama on his handling of the situation, though he has endorsed Mitt Romney for president.
On the other hand, the hurricane may have actually hurt Romney. For example, President Obama cancelled his campaigning plans in Florida and returned to Washington D.C. to better deal with Hurricane Sandy. Romney, due to his position, was less capable of political action. Romney has also stated during his campaign that he would be willing to cut off funding for the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) and let each state have the right to handle emergency situations on its own terms. This is the same FEMA that is attempting to deal with the consequences of Hurricane Sandy. The extent of this comment on voter decision is hard to measure, but it most certainly does not put him in a positive light.
Hurricane Sandy may have even more influence on Senate and House elections. For the Senate and the House, voter turnout would be much more crucial especially in regions where it is a close race between the candidates. Such is the case in Connecticut between Democratic Congressman Christopher Murphy and Republican candidate Linda McMahon, where there has been concern among Democrats for the re-election of Murphy because of a lack of voter turnout in certain areas. How the hurricane has been handled and the current condition of a region could impact an election, especially for an incumbent senator or congressman. An incumbent could have gained or lost votes in these final days based on his or her response to the political test of a hurricane. The extent these individuals attempt to get in touch with those who bore the brunt of Hurricane Sandy may shift which candidate they vote for.
While obviously we have no control over mother nature, the timing of Hurricane Sandy has been interesting in terms of elections. The consequences of Hurricane Sandy on the presidential and congressional race is hard to foresee, but the chances of it impacting national elections is rather minimal. Rather, if the hurricane does affect the election, it would be for Congressional elections rather than the presidential election, although both Romney and Obama have made efforts to weather the storm.
Fariha Kabir’s column appears Wednesdays in The Cavalier Daily. She can be reached at f.kabir@cavalierdaily.com.
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