In less than 24 hours, Virginians will go to the polls to elect a new governor.
Though the gubernatorial race between Republican Mark Earley and Democrat Mark Warner is the major race on the ballot, Virginians also will vote for lieutenant governor, attorney general and representatives to the Virginia House of Delegates.
The governor's race however is receiving the most of the attention, both locally and nationally.
Larry J. Sabato, University professor of government and foreign affairs, said that because governors in Virginia are limited to one four-year term, they cannot make huge long-term changes in Virginia politics.
"One governor can at least change course or continue and that's at the heart of the stakes," Sabato said.
Warner generally is thought to be the candidate who would change course on such issues as the budget, taxes and education, while Earley would be more similar to current Virginia Gov. James S. Gilmore III, also a Republican.
Recent polling suggests that Warner has a strong advantage over Earley going into the final days of the campaign. A new poll released by the Richmond Times-Dispatch and Richmond's NBC 12 which has Warner up 13 percentage points.
"Unless the polls are wrong, Warner will win," Sabato said.
However, College Republicans President Adam Hatcher is not ready to concede the election. "Too much weight is being put on the polls that are coming out. If the election of 2000 told us anything, we can't say until all the votes are counted," Hatcher said.
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Sabato added he expects voter turnout to be low. Much of the candidates' last-minute campaigning will be focused on getting their base to the polls.
For example, today and tomorrow, University Democrats members' efforts will be directed toward getting out the vote by working phone banks for the local Democratic Party and standing at Barracks Road intersections with signs during rush hour, president Mohsin Reza said.
Reza said he feels "very good" about the chances of Warner and other Democrats winning Tuesday.
Hatcher said College Republicans are also campaigning until the end.
Party label is traditionally an "extremely important" factor in Virginia elections, Sabato said.
However, ideological differences have narrowed during this race.
In Virginia, "no one is really liberal anymore," he said.
Although Republican candidates have won in the last two elections, fights in Richmond over the elimination of the car tax and the freezes in state spending that resulted last year have turned many conservative voters to Warner, Sabato said.
"The key event of the year is the budget impasse. The Republican-controlled General Assembly and a Republican governor created a disaster that could turn into a debacle Tuesday," he added.
The debate over a proposed Northern Virginia tax referendum specifically for regional transportation projects has become a major issue for both candidates. Warner supports the referendum and Earley has promised to veto the proposal, which first must be approved by the General Assembly.
Other Virginia races
The lieutenant governor race pits Republican Jay K. Katzen, a member of the Virginia House of Delegates from Markham, Va., versus Democrat Timothy M. Kaine, former mayor of Richmond.
The race for attorney general is between Democrat Donald McEachrin, who serves in the House of Delegates, and Republican Jerry W. Kilgore, who served in former Gov. George Allen's administration as Virginia secretary of public safety. Both are lawyers from Henrico County.
The candidates for these races run on similar messages to the top of their parties' ticket.
Sabato said most people, however, cannot tell you who the candidates are for these races and the races are influenced heavily by the coattails of Warner and Earley.
Polling now shows Kaine with an advantage over Katzen and Kilgore leading McEachrin. Sabato added that higher exposure might help Kilgore stop a possible coattail effect from Warner.
All 100 seats in the Virginia House of Delegates are also up for grabs this election. Republicans now hold a majority with 52 seats. Recent polling indicates the majority will increase by three to eight seats.
"The state is fundamentally conservative. Just because it might vote for Warner, it doesn't mean it's not" Republican, Sabato said.
He said these gains are mainly due to last spring's redistricting by the General Assembly following the release of new census statistics. As Republicans controlled the General Assembly, they were able to approve new districts that probably would favor their party's candidates.
Despite the influence of the coattail effect on executive branch offices, Sabato believes local dynamics will govern the election of delegates.
Incumbents in many of these races are running unopposed, but there are still several hotly contested races. At least seven of the races are polling within the margin of error, Sabato said.
One of these toss-up races is for the 58th district, located primarily in Albemarle County. Republican Rob Bell is running against Democrat Charles S. Martin for the seat vacated by former Del. Paul Harris.
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