With 16 wins in conference play and a sixth place finish in the ACC, Virginia baseball should have felt confident about making the NCAA Tournament. After all, the ACC is the second-best baseball conference in the country, and the Cavaliers had won 12 of their last 15 games. Virginia was one of the hottest teams in the country down the stretch and had made a real case for a postseason bid.
However, a subpar strength of schedule and an early exit from the ACC Tournament left the Cavaliers sitting in doubt when Selection Monday rolled around. When the names were read out and the bracket was revealed, Virginia was somehow left out and named as one of the first four teams out by the selection committee.
The blame for this can go in many different places. Some may choose to blame the selection committee for ignoring one of the best teams in baseball over the last month and not recognizing extenuating circumstances like the canceled Florida State series. Some may choose to blame the team for getting off to such a cold start and not living up to the preseason expectations of a top five team. In reality, both parties are to blame.
But irrespective of who you blame, the reality is that Virginia should have been included, at least according to past selection choices. This Virginia team is the first ACC team to finish five games above .500 in ACC play and miss the NCAA Tournament since 1994. In fact, Virginia had a very similar resume to 2024 Florida and 2022 Mississippi — bubble teams who gained momentum and went on to the College World Series. The Rebels won the College World Series outright. The Cavaliers may not have gone that far, but history suggests that they deserved a chance.
The selection committee cited lack of competition as a reason for exclusion but also said they factored in the canceled series against the Seminoles due to the tragic shooting on their campus. Clearly, this logic is flawed — if the Florida State series had been played, then the Cavaliers’ strength of schedule would be improved, and their strength of record would be better if they had won just one game in Tallahassee.
The committee also mentioned Virginia’s poor in-conference strength of schedule, but that is something that is completely out of the team’s control since the ACC creates the conference schedules itself. Additionally, the Cavaliers’ ACC strength of schedule is on par with other Power Four teams such as Houston, Iowa and West Virginia. And the committee decided that at least West Virginia's schedule was strong enough to be included in the NCAA Tournament. Virginia may not have been on par with the upper class of the ACC, but the committee was fine giving an exception to other teams.
That being said, while it would be easy to point fingers at the selection committee and say it was solely their fault, the Cavaliers did not help themselves at all this season. Whether it be easy midweek games against local non-conference teams or losing big games with late blown leads, there were far too many stains on a potential postseason case.
For starters, Virginia lost both of its games against Liberty this season. The Flames went 10-17 in conference play and had just lost series to New Mexico State and Western Kentucky before playing the Cavaliers. Yet, somehow, they won both games by a combined score of 15-6, embarrassing Virginia both at home and away. Add in another early-season midweek loss to Richmond, and the Cavaliers’ tournament credibility took a severe hit.
Throughout the season, those winnable games slipped away. The bullpen, a primary culprit, demonstrated an inability to close out games all season. This critique is completely validated by the fact that many wins were stolen at the last second by shady pitching and clutch hitting from opponents.
It is an absolute shame that Virginia will miss the NCAA Tournament for just the third time since Coach Brian O’Connor took over in 2004. They have completely failed to live up to the standard of Cavalier baseball this season, and, while the season was a rollercoaster, it has come to an abrupt and dissatisfying ending. Yes, the blame can be passed on to the selection committee for negligence and a poor argument. However, if Virginia simply played fundamental Virginia baseball this season, they would have likely been on the right side of the bubble.
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