Ultimately, No. 10 Virginia baseball is in a good place. The Cavaliers (22-7, 7-5 ACC) carry a winning record in the always-challenging ACC. The team has won three of its four conference series, and has largely powered past non-conference competition. The team is 4-2 against ranked competition, showing that Virginia can compete with the best teams.
This same team, however, lost its most recent conference series against Boston College in a showcase of offensive ineptitude. This same team has not swept any conference series. This same team put forth zero runs in a 14-point loss against an unranked, thoroughly middling Charlotte team. Although Virginia has only lost seven games of the nearly 30 it has played, it has lost those by an average of more than six runs.
No. 7 Florida State enters the game as a good team themselves, coming off of a series win over Duke. The Seminoles (21-6, 7-2 ACC) sit atop the conference standings and enter the series ahead of the Cavaliers in the rankings. Virginia, a team hoping to return to tournament play, must play top-tier baseball in this series, which starts Thursday at 5 p.m.
Ahead of the series, here is the good, the bad and the surprising — the high, the low and the buffalo — for the Cavaliers and their opponent.
The High
In the past, Virginia baseball has had trouble with the bullpen. That worry does seem to have shifted away, at least to an extent. Of the relievers that have spent more than 10 innings on the mound, three — freshman Noah Yoder, graduate student Tyler Kapa and graduate student Lucas Hartman — have recorded ERAs south of 2.00. In particular, Yoder has recorded a sub-1.00 ERA over 15 innings of work this season.
While Florida State has solid pitching, its bullpen is liable to give up more runs than Virginia’s. Only one bullpen pitcher for the Seminoles has a sub-2.00 ERA, and only four have one below 5.00 — the Cavaliers have seven relievers below that mark.
On the other side of the game, the first half of the batting order — typically consisting of junior infielder Eric Becker, junior outfielder AJ Gracia, junior infielder Joe Tiroly, senior outfielder Harrison Didawick and junior infielder Sam Harris — has been solid for Virginia. Tiroly has the lowest batting average of this group, and he still bats a thoroughly decent .261, while Gracia leads the team with a .350 average.
All except Tiroly have posted double-digit extra-base hits. Gracia and Harris lead the team in home runs, with each having hit balls beyond the ballpark eight times apiece.
The Low
While the first half of the order has generally been solid, the other bats have a tendency to slump and stay slumped. Nowhere was this more present than in the most recent weekend series against Boston College.
The above group of batters had the majority of hits for the team, but their teammates provided scant offense to allow the Cavaliers to plate possible runs. Against Boston College, players not mentioned above had four hits — not in one game, but across the entire series.
The small sample size of only three games will assure any fan that the woes are not likely to reach such great depths again. However, there is a weakness for Virginia, and that weakness is in the bottom of the lineup.
While the pitching has been solid at times, the Cavaliers lack a truly superb ace. Junior pitcher Matt Augustin leads the starters with a 4.15 ERA, but he has only thrown 4.1 innings as he works back from injury. Of the pitchers who have started five or more games, none have an ERA under 5.00.
Compare that to junior pitcher Wes Mendes, who has started seven games for the Seminoles, tallying 40.2 innings with a 1.33 ERA. That kind of pitcher who can shut down an offense bodes poorly for Virginia. It will be paramount to the Cavaliers that they play disciplined at the plate and work to drive Mendes and the other Florida State starters out of the game quickly.
The Buffalo
The Florida State team that comes into Charlottesville Thursday will not be the same team that has played this year. The Seminoles will play the series, and all other matches for the rest of the year, without their star sophomore infielder Myles Bailey. Bailey, who was injured on a slide into second base following a base-stealing attempt, has since undergone ankle surgery and will miss the rest of the year.
Bailey has been the firepower behind the Seminoles. He has posted the second-highest batting average on the team — his .363 average outpaces every Cavalier that has started over half of the games this season. He has also recorded more home runs and extra-base hits, leading to a slugging percentage of .913 that towers over his teammates — and every Cavalier with significant playing time.
Florida State will be looking for someone to fill the Bailey-shaped hole in its offense, and Virginia will look to capitalize on a highly-ranked team missing its best player. The stage is set for a ranked-against-ranked matchup that could have significant stakes as teams begin to find themselves in position for postseason play.
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