Larry Sabato, director and founder of the University’s Center for Politics, joined community members Saturday at the Virginia Guesthouse Hotel for his annual Crystal Ball lecture. Sabato shared his insights into how the country’s 2026 midterm elections are unfolding heading into the final weeks of the campaign. Overall, he indicated that he believes Democrats are on track to make Congressional gains this year — the question is how many.
“A Look into the Crystal Ball” is part of a recurring lecture series hosted by Lifetime Learning. Sabato’s Crystal Ball is a nonpartisan political newsletter which analyzes election trends and rates the probability of either party winning key races based on factors like polling, a district’s electoral history and the quality of that district’s respective candidates.
Sabato began by reminding listeners that this year marks President Donald Trump’s sixth in the White House. “Sixth year elections,” he noted, usually yield unflattering results for the party that holds the presidency.
Former Presidents Dwight Eisenhower, Lyndon Johnson, Richard Nixon and George W. Bush all saw their party lose a substantial number of congressional seats during the second midterm elections of their presidencies, while Democrats suffered losses under former President Barack Obama both in 2010 and 2014. Sabato said that he suspects the Republican Party is on track for a similarly poor performance under Trump.
“Normally, the sixth year election is the really bad election for a president because by the sixth year, people are sick to death of you,” Sabato said. “With Trump, that was on day one of term one … but this [election] is going to be bad for him. The objections to him have built up over these years.”
Like other University experts who have weighed in on the 2026 elections, Sabato predicted that only the most motivated voters will cast a ballot this year, something he said will benefit the Democratic Party. Citing a polling aggregate from Strength in Numbers which showed that Trump’s approval has sunk to a record low of 33 percent, Sabato noted that 50 percent of Americans polled say they strongly disapprove of the President, matched by only 15 percent who say they strongly approve.
“That's the real problem [for Trump],” Sabato said. “He is hated by a large percentage of the population, and they're going to show up because it's their only chance to register their opinion about [him].”
The same data from Strength in Numbers showed that of the 13 issues which voters perceive as being the most important, they now trust the Democratic Party to better address 10. Of the three issues where Strength in Numbers shows the Republicans are still perceived as being more trustworthy — deportations, border security and crime and public safety — Sabato said their advantage is notably slimmer than in years prior. According to Sabato, Republicans’ diminished voter confidence on immigration issues signals that Democrats are winning back the Hispanic voting bloc which was key to Trump’s victory in 2024.
Another group which Sabato said swung towards Trump in 2024 but is now solidly trending Democratic is young people. Sabato said he believes this demonstrates how the issue of affordability remains central to their political preferences — Democrats are now perceived as being more trustworthy on the economy, according to the Strength in Numbers polling.
“They're young and they're starting out, and they’re finally realizing what their parents told them was [not] true,” Sabato said. “They’re not going to be able to afford a house until they’re 83 … I see it here [at the University].”
These and other factors have culminated in more than an eight point lead for Democrats in generic party polling, according to Strength in Numbers, with some polls showing them ahead by more. Similarly, betting markets such as polymarket now overwhelmingly predict that Democrats will flip at least one congressional chamber — Sabato warned that election betting can invite wealthy candidates to bet on themselves in order to inflate their chances, but that he generally believes they are a reliable indicator of electoral trends.
Sabato indicated that Democrats are well positioned to flip the House this year. The Crystal Ball’s most recent rankings, which he displayed onscreen, show Democrats are favored to win roughly 211 out of 435 House seats. Republicans are favored to win roughly 203 seats, and 21 seats are tossups, which could come down to a “fraction of a point” and cannot be forecasted with much accuracy, according to Sabato.
An audience member asked Sabato if there are any House seats in Virginia which Democrats could flip. Sabato highlighted three — in the second district, he said he believes former Congresswoman Elaine Luria (D) has a slight edge over incumbent Congresswoman Jen Kiggans (R). Conversely, he said Congressman Rob Wittman (R) likely has a slight advantage over his opponent, Henrico County Commonwealth’s Attorney Shannon Taylor (D) in the first district, though he noted that internal polling for that seat is within the margin of error.
The final race to watch, according to Sabato, is the 5th Congressional District — home to Charlottesville — where one-term Congressman John McGuire (R) is facing former Congressman Tom Perriello (D). Perriello served a term in Congress after upsetting six-term incumbent Virgil Goode (R) in 2008. Sabato said that he believes McGuire has a slight advantage, but cautioned that he does not believe a Democratic flip is completely out of the question.
“When Tom Perriello won the first time in 2008, nobody thought he was going to beat Virgil Goode,” Sabato said. “Virgil was an institution, and he lost. He lost because it was a big Democratic year. Let's see [what happens] now.”
According to Sabato, the Senate’s design disproportionately favors the Republican Party, as each state gets two seats, and Republican voters tend to be more spread out across rural America. In order for Democrats to gain enough ground to win the Senate, he remarked, they would need “a year like this one” with an unpopular Republican president influencing voters’ choices at the ballot box.
The Crystal Ball ratings Sabato displayed indicate a Democratic win in the Senate is a possibility. The Center for Politics believes Democrats are favored to win 48 Senate seats and Republicans are favored to win 47, while there are five remaining tossups. Four tossups are in the traditionally Republican states of Ohio, Iowa, Texas and Alaska. The Crystal Ball also rates the Maine Senate race between Sen. Susan Collins (R) and former State Sen. President Troy Jackson (D) as a toss up.
Shifting his attention to the days and months after the midterms, Sabato issued two stark warnings to national Democrats as they prepare for what comes after November.
Sabato said he believes Democrats will lose if they nominate former Presidential Candidate Kamala Harris (D) in 2028, instead suggesting Democrats choose a male candidate from the “South or middle of the country” such as Georgia Sen. Jon Ossoff (D) or possibly Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear (D).
Further, he noted that one exception to the “sixth-year” effect was the Democratic party’s relatively strong showing in the 1998 elections, which he attributed to backlash against the Republican Party for their effort to impeach President Bill Clinton. Democrats also impeached Trump twice when they controlled the House from 2019 to 2023. He warned that if Democrats win the House again, filing another impeachment resolution against Trump could be a mistake.
“Do not go right to impeachment, maybe never go to it,” Sabato said. “It ends up helping the president. … it did with Trump, and it did with Clinton … all you do is energize the people supporting that president because … it stirs their partisan juices.”
Third-year College student Bennett Brunner, who previously worked for Sabato’s Global Perspectives on Democracy Program and attended Saturday’s event, said he appreciates the Center for Politics’ work because it helps provide him with a change in perspective.
“I'm a huge fan and supporter of Sabato and the Center’s work,” Brunner said. “I think the Crystal Ball gives a really interesting insight … that is based very profoundly on polls and statistics in a way that you don't get in day-to-day discourse with students or through … a lot of your usual news.”
Luca Bailey is a third-year College student majoring in politics from Free Union, Va. As a staffer on the news and video desks, he has covered topics ranging from the General Assembly and state elections to local politics and University governance. He is also The Cavalier Daily’s beat writer for the Charlottesville City Council.
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